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[1]Yu Zhou,Li Mingyu,Qian Yuyang,et al.Land Use Change and Its Ecological Effects in Three Gorges Reservoir Area Based on CA_Markov Model with Multiple Scenarios Simulation[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(03):363-372.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.03.023]

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Land Use Change and Its Ecological Effects in Three Gorges Reservoir Area Based on CA_Markov Model with Multiple Scenarios Simulation

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 31 Number of periods: 2024 03 Page number: 363-372 Column: Public date: 2024-04-30

Title:: Land Use Change and Its Ecological Effects in Three Gorges Reservoir Area Based on CA_Markov Model with Multiple Scenarios Simulation

Author(s):: Yu Zhou^1,2, Li Mingyu¹, Qian Yuyang², Peng Renfeng², Yang Guoxing²; (1.Yanbian University, Yanji, Jilin 133002, China; 2.Yangtze Three Gorges Technology & Economy Development Co., Ltd., Beijing 101100, China)

Keywords:: land use change; ecological environment quality; CA_Markov model; scenario simulation; Three Gorges Reservoir Area

CLC:: F301.2; X171.1

DOI:: 10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.03.023

Abstract:: [Objective] The aims of this study are to investigate the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of land use and ecological environment quality in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, to reveal the ecological environment effects caused by land use changes, and to provide a basis for land resource integration and ecological environment protection in the study area. [Methods] Remote sensing monitoring data of land use in 2000, 2010 and 2020 were selected to predict the spatial pattern of land use in 2030 under the Natural Change Scenario(NCS)and the Ecological Protection Scenario(EPS)using the CA_Markov model, respectively, and to quantitatively analyze the long time series of land use changes and ecological and environmental effects of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area by transfer matrix, ecological environment quality index, geostatistical analysis, and ecological contribution rate. [Results](1)From 2000 to 2020, the Three Gorges Reservoir Area had obvious transformation between land use types, in which cropland shifted to construction land, grassland shifted to forest land and cropland, and the growth of construction land area amounted to 1 321.56 km², with a growth rate of 275.02%.(2)The simulation results show that the proportions of forestland and grassland area under the ecological protection scenario in 2030 will be higher than those under the natural change scenario, while the expansion of construction land significantly reduces compared with the natural change scenario.(3)The ecological quality of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area shows a stepped distribution pattern of gradual increase from west to east, and its ecological quality slightly decreases from 2000 to 2030, from 0.547 9 in 2000 to 0.533 6 in 2030.(4)From 2000 to 2030, the two dominant factors reducing the ecological quality of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area are the conversion of forests and grasslands to croplands, and the main favorable factor improving its ecological quality is the conversion of croplands to forests, with a proportion of ecological contribution exceeding 70%. [Conclusion] The return of farmland to forests and grasslands and rapid urban development have led to both ecological improvement and ecological deterioration in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, but in general, the ecological environment quality in the study area shows a trend of improvement slightly less than deterioration, and the transformation between construction land, forestland, cropland and grassland is the main reason for this.

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Last Update: 2024-04-30