[1]Li Jinghao,Liu Shujun,Wang Zhijie.Multi-scenario Simulation of Spatiotemporal Changes of Land Use Pattern and Ecosystem Services in Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau Based on FLUS and InVEST Models[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(03):287-298.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.03.004]
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Multi-scenario Simulation of Spatiotemporal Changes of Land Use Pattern and Ecosystem Services in Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau Based on FLUS and InVEST Models
Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume:
31
Number of periods:
2024 03
Page number:
287-298
Column:
Public date:
2024-04-30
- Title:
- Multi-scenario Simulation of Spatiotemporal Changes of Land Use Pattern and Ecosystem Services in Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau Based on FLUS and InVEST Models
- Keywords:
- FLUS model; InVEST model; carbon storage; water yield; soil conservation
- CLC:
- F301.2; X171.1
- DOI:
- 10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.03.004
- Abstract:
- [Objective] The aims of this study are to explore the spatiotemporal changes of land use and ecosystem services under different development scenarios on the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, and to provide an important scientific basis for optimizing the spatial pattern of land use, improving the function of ecosystem services and formulating sustainable development strategies. [Methods] The Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau was taken as the research object. The MCD12Q1 land cover data of phases 2001, 2010 and 2020 were taken as the basic data, and the natural and socio-economic data were taken as the auxiliary data. Based on ArcGIS, FLUS model and InVEST model platform, the land use pattern change patterns of Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau from 2001 to 2020 were analyzed. The spatiotemporal distribution pattern of land use and the spatiotemporal changes of three ecosystem services function(carbon storage, water yield and soil conservation)were simulated under the Natural Development Scenario(NDS), Ecological Protection Scenario(EPS)and Farmland Protection Scenario(FPS)in 2030, 2040 and 2050. [Results](1)The main trend of land use structure in Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau under different scenarios was the continuous increase of forestland and the continuous decrease of grassland. The farmland area can account for 10.38% of the total area under the FPS. The forestland and grassland area will reach 90% of the total area by 2050 under the EPS.(2)Under the three scenarios, the total carbon storage and soil conservation of ecosystem services in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau from 2020 to 2050 show an increasing trend, while the total water yield shows a decreasing trend. Under the EPS, the predicted value of carbon storage in 2050 will be the highest, 8.13×109 t, and the reduction rate of water yield will be significantly lower than the other two scenarios, with a decrease of 0.46%.(3)Yichang, Pu'er and Changde have higher ecosystem services supply capacity. However, the supply capacity of ecosystem services in Guiyang, Bijie and Anshun is low. [Conclusion] The supply capacity of ecosystem services in the study area is better from 2020 to 2050, and all service functions show strong spatial aggregation and heterogeneity under different scenarios. When formulating strategies for ecosystem service management and sustainable development in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, the spatial differentiation characteristics of different ecosystem service functions and the water shortage caused by the continuous increase of forest area should be considered.
- References:
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Last Update:
2024-04-30