[1]Sun Yuan,Zhang Xin,Yan Cai,et al.Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Drought Using NSPEI in Qinghai Province Based on the GAMLSS Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2023,30(06):316-327,336.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.06.007]
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Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Drought Using NSPEI in Qinghai Province Based on the GAMLSS Model
Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume:
30
Number of periods:
2023 06
Page number:
316-327,336
Column:
Public date:
2023-10-10
- Title:
- Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Drought Using NSPEI in Qinghai Province Based on the GAMLSS Model
- Keywords:
- GAMLSS model; non stationary drought; Copulas connect theory; Qinghai Province; drought return period
- CLC:
- P467
- DOI:
- 10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.06.007
- Abstract:
- [Objective] The aims of this study are to identify the non-stationary characteristics of meteorological variables under the influence of climate change and reveal the spatiotemporal evolution law of meteorological drought characteristics in Qinghai Province, so as to provide some technical support for drought relief and disaster reduction in Qinghai Province. [Methods] Based on GAMLSS model, a non-stationary NSPEI with climatic factors as explanatory variables was constructed. A meteorological drought index more suitable for Qinghai Province was selected by comparing with the traditional SPEI, and the distribution characteristics of drought return periods under different scenarios were analyzed by using the run length theory and Copula method. [Results] Compared with SPEI, NSPEI could identify different drought degrees in Qinghai Province more accurately, especially for severe drought events. From 1961 to 2020, the drought frequency in Qinghai Province showed a decreasing trend and moderate and mild drought mainly occurred. The high drought frequency occurred in the northwest of Qaidam Basin and the low drought frequency area in the southwest of Qingnan pastoral area. Drought duration and drought intensity decreased at 0.018 9/a and 0.016 6/a, respectively. The spatiotemporal changes of the two drought characteristics were synchronous, and both decreased from northwest to northeast. In the moderate drought scenario, Tor and Tand averaged 2.79 and 7.52 years, respectively. The average Tor of severe drought was 4.11 years, and the average Tand was 16.22 years. The southwest of Qinghai Province was the high risk area of moderate and severe drought, while the eastern agricultural area was the heavy and low risk area of moderate and severe drought. [Conclusion] The stationarities of precipitation and temperature series in Qinghai Province no longer exist. Considering that NSPEI, which takes climate factor as covariable, has more advantages in revealing the spatiotemporal variation trend of Qinghai Province, it can be used to predict the future change of meteorological drought in Qinghai Province.
- References:
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Last Update:
2023-10-10