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[1]Yu Yangbo,Tang Guoping,Niu Xiangyu,et al.Effect of Land Use and Climate Change on Runoff in Liuxi River Reservoir Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2023,30(06):32-39,48.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.06.014]

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Effect of Land Use and Climate Change on Runoff in Liuxi River Reservoir Basin

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 30 Number of periods: 2023 06 Page number: 32-39,48 Column: Public date: 2023-10-10

Title:: Effect of Land Use and Climate Change on Runoff in Liuxi River Reservoir Basin

Author(s):: Yu Yangbo, Tang Guoping, Niu Xiangyu, Li Yi; (School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China)

Keywords:: land use change; climate change; runoff simulation; Liuxi River Reservoir Basin; CHESS model

CLC:: P333.5

DOI:: 10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.06.014

Abstract:: [Objective] The objective of this study is to explore the response of runoff to land use and land cover change(LUCC)as well as climate change, provide a basis for the rational utilization and development of water resources and the sustainable development of social economy in Liuxi River Reservoir Basin. [Methods] We analyzed the impacts of land use and climate change under several scenarios on river runoff in the Liuxi River Reservoir Basin using a distributed eco-hydrologic CHESS model. Meanwhile, we used the CA-Markov model to predict the future changes of land use change on river runoff. [Results] The CHESS model had a good performance in simulating river runoff in the Liuxi River Reservoir Basin. The calibration and validation results showed that NS was 0.82 and 0.74, and R² was 0.91 and 0.86, respectively. Under the land use change scenarios, the conversion of farmland into forest or grassland would reduce runoff, and the conversion of forest or grassland into farmland would lead to the increase of runoff. The descending order of contribution to runoff was farmland, grassland, and forest. Under the climate change scenarios, changes in runoff were proportional to precipitation and inversely proportional to temperature. From 2000 to 2020, the basin runoff increased gradually. Climate change promoted the generation of runoff during this time, while land use change inhibited it, and the impact of climate change was greater. Under the future land use change scenarios, the area of building land in the basin will increase in 2030 and 2050, while the area of forest and grassland will decrease, and the area of farmland and water will change little. Moreover, the runoff of the basin will increase in the period from 2040 to 2050. [Conclusion] Land use and climate change have respectively suppressed and promoted the generation of runoff in the Liuxi River Reservoir Basin, and the impact of climate change is greater. In the future, the runoff in this basin will show an increasing trend, and early warning of flood disasters should be strengthened.

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Last Update: 2023-10-10