[1]GAO Fang,LIU Ji,CHEN Wei,et al.Study on Propagation Characteristics and Response Probabilities of Meteorological and Hydrological Drought Zones in the Upper Reaches of Huai River[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2023,30(05):257-265.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.05.041.]
Copy
Study on Propagation Characteristics and Response Probabilities of Meteorological and Hydrological Drought Zones in the Upper Reaches of Huai River
Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume:
30
Number of periods:
2023 05
Page number:
257-265
Column:
Public date:
2023-08-10
- Title:
- Study on Propagation Characteristics and Response Probabilities of Meteorological and Hydrological Drought Zones in the Upper Reaches of Huai River
- Keywords:
- drought propagation characteristics; response probability; Bayesian network; Copula; the upper reaches of Huai River
- CLC:
- P339
- DOI:
- 10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.05.041.
- Abstract:
- [Objective] Exploring the propagation characteristics and response probability of meteorological hydrological drought is conducive to providing scientific reference for hydrological drought early warning. [Methods] Based on the meteorological and hydrological data of 35 meteorological stations and Wangjiaba and Xixian hydrologic stations in the upper reaches of the Huai River from 1980 to 2013, the basin above Wangjiaba was divided into two sub basins: Xixian(XX)and Xixian Wangjiaba interval(WJB). The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI)and Standardized Runoff Index(SRI)of each region were calculated respectively, and the meteorological hydrological drought response time of each region was calculated by using the correlation coefficient method. The hydrological drought events were matched to obtain the meteorological hydrological drought propagation characteristics of different regions. Further, combined with Copula joint distribution function and Bayesian network, the meteorological hydrological drought response probability model of the upper reaches of the Huai River was constructed to calculate the meteorological hydrological drought response probability under different return periods. [Results](1)The response time of meteorological hydrological drought in WJB and XX was 7 months and 5 months, respectively, the average drought propagation duration in the two regions was about 1 month, and the average drought relief duration was about 2 months.(2)The durations and intensities of meteorological drought in WJB and XX were generally less than the corresponding hydrological drought characteristic values, and the sensitivity of hydrological drought in WJB to meteorological drought was lower than XX.(3)The meteorological hydrological drought response probabilities of WJB and XX were in direct proportion to the duration, intensity and intensity of meteorological drought. WJB was more prone to hydrological drought events with longer drought duration, while XX was more prone to hydrological drought events with greater drought intensity and intensity.(4)When meteorological drought spreaded to hydrological drought with the same return period, the response probability of meteorological hydrological drought decreased with the increase of return period, and the response probability of XX meteorological hydrological drought was greater than WJB. [Conclusion] There were differences in the meteorological and hydrological drought propagation characteristics and response probability between XX and WJB. Therefore, the hydrological drought early warning research should be strengthened based on the differences.
- References:
-
[1] Corey L, Pedram R, Navin R. Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production[J]. Nature, 2016,529(7584):84-87.
[2] Zhang Q, Li Q, Singh V P, et al. Nonparametric integrated agrometeorological drought monitoring: Model development and application[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2018,123(1):73-88.
[3] 张璇,许杨,郝芳华,等.滦河流域气象干旱向水文干旱传播特征及风险分析[J].水利学报,2022,53(2):165-175.
[4] 裴源生,蒋桂芹,翟家齐.干旱演变驱动机制理论框架及其关键问题[J].水科学进展,2013,24(3):449-456.
[5] 杨铭珂,贺中华,任荣仪.黔中地区气象水文干旱演变特征及其响应关系[J].水土保持研究,2022,29(1):264-274,280.
[6] Yu M X, Liu X L, Li Q F. Responses of meteorological drought-hydrological drought propagation to watershed scales in the upper Huai River basin, China[J]. Environmental Science and Pollution Research International, 2020,27(15):17561-17570.
[7] Carmelo C, Jonathan S, Paulo B, et al. The effects of non-stationarity on SPI for operational drought monitoring in Europe[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2021,42(6):3418-3430.
[8] Yue S P, Sheng X D, Yang F T. Spatiotemporal evolution and meteorological triggering conditions of hydrological drought in the Hun River basin, NE China[J]. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2022,22(3):995-1014.
[9] 李翔翔,居辉,刘勤,等.基于SPEI-PM指数的黄淮海平原干旱特征分析[J].生态学报,2017,37(6):2054-2066.
[10] 刘永佳,黄生志,方伟,等.不同季节气象干旱向水文干旱的传播及其动态变化[J].水利学报,2021,52(1):93-102.
[11] Li J Y, Wu C H, Xia C A, et al. Assessing the responses of hydrological drought to meteorological drought in the Huai River Basin, China[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2021,144(3):1043-1057.
[12] Wang J, Wang W, Cheng H, et al. Propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought and its influencing factors in the huai river basin[J]. Water, 2021,13(14):1985.
[13] 刘永强,黄生志,郭怿,等.气象干旱到不同等级水文干旱的传播阈值:以沁河流域为例[J].水力发电学报,2022,41(2):9-19.
[14] 杨铭珂,贺中华,张浪,等.不同时间尺度下气象干旱向水文干旱传播过程[J].水土保持学报,2021,35(6):350-360.
[15] 张浪.喀斯特地区气象干旱—水文干旱传播过程及其驱动机制[D].贵阳:贵州师范大学,2022.
[16] 马岚.气象干旱向水文干旱传播的动态变化及其驱动力研究[D].西安:西安理工大学,2019.
[17] Li C, Zhang X, Yin G D, et al. Evaluation of drought propagation characteristics and influencing factors in an arid region of northeast Asia(ARNA)[J]. Remote Sensing Letters, 2022,14:3307.
[18] Han Z M, Huang S Z, Huang Q, et al. Propagation dynamics from meteorological to groundwater drought and their possible influence factors[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2019,578(C):124102.
[19] Huang S Z, Li P, Huang Q, et al. The propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought and its potential influence factors[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2017,547:184-195.
[20] 姚蕊,夏敏,孙鹏,等.淮河流域干旱时空演变特征及成因[J].生态学报,2021,41(1):333-347.
[21] 林慧.基于CMIP6模式的淮河中上游流域气象干旱特征及演变趋势研究[D].江苏扬州:扬州大学,2021.
[22] Xiao M Z, Yu Z B, Zhu Y L. Copula-based frequency analysis of drought with identified characteristics in space and time: A case study in Huai River basin, China[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2019,137(3/4):2865-2875.
[23] 李宗盟,霍兵兵,朱文敏,等.淮河中上游段干支流河道走向特征分析[J].信阳师范学院学报:自然科学版,2022,35(2):248-251.
[24] Wang H, Liu Z Z, Zhu J, et al. Spatio-temporal extraction of surface waterbody and its response of extreme climate along the Upper Huai River [J]. Sustainability, 2022,14(6):3223.
[25] 张特,刘冀,魏榕,等.淮河上游植被对气象干旱的响应[J].水土保持研究,2020,27(2):213-219.
[26] 袁开蓉,王玉英,刘衍,等.不同饱和水汽压计算式对室外湿球温度计算的影响[J].工业建筑,2020,50(7):101-106.
[27] 杨少康,刘冀,魏榕等.长江上游流域生长季气象干旱分异特征[J].水土保持研究,2022,29(02):184-191.
[28] 郭晓芳,李旭东,程东亚.云贵高原气温与降水空间分布特征及其影响因素[J].水土保持研究,2021,28(1):159-163,170.
[29] Wang W Y, Li J L, Qu H J, et al. Spatial and temporal drought characteristics in the huanghuaihai plain and its influence on cropland water use efficiency[J]. Remote Sensing Letters, 2022,14(10):2381.
[30] Guo Y, Huang S Z, Huang Q, et al. Propagation thresholds of meteorological drought for triggering hydrological drought at various levels[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2020,712:136502.
[31] Hao Z C, Hao F H, Singh V P, et al. Probabilistic prediction of hydrologic drought using a conditional probability approach based on the meta-Gaussian model[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2016,542:772-780.
[32] 李京芳,彭涛,董晓华,等.基于Copula函数的汉江流域水文干旱风险研究[J].水土保持研究,2022,29(3):179-188.
[33] Pathak A A, Dodamani B. M. Connection between meteorological and groundwater drought with copula-based bivariate frequency analysis[J]. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 2021,26(7):05021015.
- Similar References:
Memo
-
Last Update:
2023-08-10