PDF Download

[1]GUAN Yue,HE Qijin,LIU Jiahong,et al.Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics and Risk Assessment of Summer Maize Drought Disasters in the North China Plain[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2023,30(02):267-273.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.02.027]

Copy

Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics and Risk Assessment of Summer Maize Drought Disasters in the North China Plain

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 30 Number of periods: 2023 02 Page number: 267-273 Column: Public date: 2023-03-10

Title:: Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics and Risk Assessment of Summer Maize Drought Disasters in the North China Plain

Author(s):: GUAN Yue^1,2, HE Qijin^1,3, LIU Jiahong¹, CHEN Xiao¹, FAN Qian², MENG Qingyi², LIU Xiang², LIU Fei²; (1.College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China; 2.Qianxinan Prefecture Meteorological Bureau, Xingyi, Guizhou 562400, China; 3.Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)

Keywords:: North China Plain; summer maize; drought; information diffusion theory; risk

CLC:: S513; S423

DOI:: 10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.02.027

Abstract:: Agro-meteorological disasters tended to expand year by year and occurred more frequently in the context of climate change. Drought not only covers a wider range but also lasts longer compared with the other agro-meteorological disasters, which has the greatest impact on agricultural production. In order to scientifically cope with summer maize drought and ensure high and stable yield of summer maize, the characteristics and risk of drought of summer maize were analyzed by using the crop water deficit index(CWDI), based on the meteorological data from 43 weather stations in the North China Plain from 1980 to 2019. The characteristics of drought in the different growth period of summer maize were identified by the frequency and the stations ratio. Moreover, the risk of drought was evaluated by using the theory of information diffusion and the analytic hierarchy process. The results indicated that:(1)the slight drought was the main drought type in the North China Plain with obvious differences in stages; the tasseling-milking stage was severely affected by drought, with an average of 28 droughts occurring at each station during 40 years, and the average drought station ratio was 69.5%;(2)summer maize suffered more serious effects of drought in the period from 2010 to 2019, and the characteristics of drought showed successive occurrence and spatial expansion;(3)the risk of drought was higher in the west and lower in the east; the high-risk and the second-high-risk areas of drought happened in most of Henan Province and southern Hebei Province, and their proportions of areas were 12.1% and 23.4%, respectively. In summary, the drought of summer maize in the North China Plain has a trend of aggravation and diffusion, and the drought is likely to occur in the tasseling milking stage, most of Henan and the south of Hebei are high drought risk areas, so drought prediction, monitoring and risk prevention and control should be strengthened.

References:: [1] 刘玲,沙奕卓,白月明.中国主要农业气象灾害区域分布与减灾对策[J].自然灾害学报,2003,12(2):92-97.
[2] 朱晓华.我国农业气象灾害减灾研究[J].中国生态农业学报,2003,11(2):145-146.
[3] 王春乙,娄秀荣,王建林.中国农业气象灾害对作物产量的影响[J].自然灾害学报,2007,16(5):37-43.
[4] 张峭,王克.我国农业自然灾害风险评估与区划[J].中国农业资源与区划,2011,32(3):32-36.
[5] 陈方藻,刘江,李茂松.60年来中国农业干旱时空演替规律研究[J].西南师范大学学报:自然科学版,2011,36(4):111-114.
[6] 陆伟婷,于欢,曹胜男,陈长青.近20年黄淮海地区气候变暖对夏玉米生育进程及产量的影响[J].中国农业科学,2015,48(16):3132-3145.
[7] 杨彦武,于强,王靖.近40年华北及华东局部主要气候资源要素的时空变异性[J].资源科学,2004,26(4):45-50.
[8] 胡亚南,李阔,许吟隆.1951—2010年华北平原农业气象灾害特征分析及粮食减产风险评估[J].中国农业气象,2013,34(2):197-203.
[9] 杨晓光,李勇,代姝玮,等.气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源变化Ⅸ.中国农业气候资源时空变化特征[J].应用生态学报,2011,22(12):3177-3188.
[10] 李柏贞,周广胜.干旱指标研究进展[J].生态学报,2014,34(5):1043-1052.
[11] 程倩,任丽雯,丁文魁,等.不同发育阶段干旱胁迫对玉米株高、果穗性状及产量的影响[J].中国农学通报,2020,36(9):19-23.
[12] 吴霞,王培娟,公衍铎,等.1961—2015年黄淮海平原夏玉米干旱识别及时空特征分析[J].农业工程学报,2019,35(18):189-199.
[13] 黄岩,李晶,王莹,等.不同生育期干旱对玉米生长及产量的影响模拟[J].农业灾害研究,2019,9(6):47-49,92.
[14] 白向历,孙世贤,杨国航,等.不同生育时期水分胁迫对玉米产量及生长发育的影响[J].玉米科学,2009,17(2):60-63.
[15] 张艳红,吕厚荃,李森.作物水分亏缺指数在农业干旱监测中的适用性[J].气象科技,2008,36(5):596-600.
[16] 李树岩,刘荣花,马志红.基于降水距平的黄淮平原夏玉米干旱评估指标研究[J].干旱地区农业研究,2012,30(3):252-256.
[17] 薛昌颖,刘荣花,马志红.黄淮海地区夏玉米干旱等级划分[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(16):147-156.
[18] 万能涵,杨晓光,刘志娟,等.气候变化背景下中国主要作物农业气象灾害时空分布特征(Ⅲ):华北地区夏玉米干旱[J].中国农业气象,2018,39(4):209-219.
[19] 郭金玉,张忠彬,孙庆云.层次分析法的研究与应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2008,18(5):148-153.
[20] 邓雪,李家铭,曾浩健,等.层次分析法权重计算方法分析及其应用研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2012,42(7):93-100.
[21] 王学林,黄琴琴,柳军.基于信息扩散理论的南方双季早稻气象灾害风险评估[J].中国农业气象,2019,40(11):712-722.
[22] 管玥,刘佳鸿,何奇瑾,等.基于信息扩散理论分析华北平原夏玉米花期高温热害的风险概率[J].中国农业气象,2021,42(7):606-615.
[23] 冯建设,王建源,王新堂,等.相对湿润度指数在农业干旱监测业务中的应用[J].应用气象学报,2011,22(6):766-772.
[24] 韦潇宇,胡琦,马雪晴,等.基于SPEI的华北平原夏玉米生长季干旱时空变化特征[J].干旱气象,2018,36(4):554-560,577.
[25] 魏湜,曹广才,高洁.玉米生态基础[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2010.
[26] 关义新,戴俊英,徐世昌,等.玉米花期干旱及复水对植株补偿生长及产量的影响[J].作物学报,1997,23(6):740-745.
[27] 赵天宏,沈秀瑛,杨德光.抽雄期水分胁迫对玉米籽粒产量及其果穗性状的影响[J].辽宁农业科学,2002(6):5-7.

Similar References:

Memo

Last Update: 2023-03-10