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[1]XUE Yuting,LI Xiehui,JIA Hejia.Future Projection of Drought Risk in Southwestern China Based on CMIP6 Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2023,30(02):247-255.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.02.031]

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Future Projection of Drought Risk in Southwestern China Based on CMIP6 Model

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 30 Number of periods: 2023 02 Page number: 247-255 Column: Public date: 2023-03-10

Title:: Future Projection of Drought Risk in Southwestern China Based on CMIP6 Model

Author(s):: XUE Yuting, LI Xiehui, JIA Hejia; (Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China)

Keywords:: CMIP6 model; AHP-entropy combined weight method; drought risk assessment; southwestern China

CLC:: P426

DOI:: 10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.02.031

Abstract:: Predicting the future drought trend in southwest China under the background of global warming can provide an effective reference for southwest regions to study drought changes and prevent future drought risks. By evaluating the simulation performance of 30 CMIP6 models in southwest China, the multi-model ensemble average data composed of 10 models were selected and calculated, then based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index SPEI, topography, population, GDP and soil water content, and the AHP-entropy weighting combined weighting method and the spatial analysis function of ArcGIS were used to construct a drought risk assessment model containing the hazard of disaster factors and the vulnerability of disaster bearers. The drought risk in the near term from 2021 to 2040 and the long term from 2041 to 2060 under the combination scenarios of SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585 in southwest China were estimated. The results showed that:(1)the high-risk areas in the future comprehensive projection of drought risk in southwestern China mainly distributed in southern Guizhou Province, eastern Yunnan Province, and scattered areas such as Shapingba in Chongqing, Wenjiang and Yuexi in Sichuan Province;(2)the low-risk areas mainly distributed in eastern Sichuan and adjacent western Chongqing, and generally showed a north-south decreasing trend;(3)from the near term to the long term, the next three scenario combinations all showed an increase in the range of the sub-high and high risk areas, and a decrease in the scope of the sub-low and low risk areas. In summary, under the background of global warming, the future drought risk in southwestern China will increase overall, especially in low-latitude areas.

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Last Update: 2023-03-10