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[1]YANG Xueqi,WU Wei,ZHENG Congqi,et al.Attribution Identification of Runoff Change in Yihe River Basin Based on Budyko Hypothesis[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2023,30(02):100-106.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.02.020]

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Attribution Identification of Runoff Change in Yihe River Basin Based on Budyko Hypothesis

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 30 Number of periods: 2023 02 Page number: 100-106 Column: Public date: 2023-03-10

Title:: Attribution Identification of Runoff Change in Yihe River Basin Based on Budyko Hypothesis

Author(s):: YANG Xueqi¹, WU Wei¹, ZHENG Congqi², WANG Qikun¹; (1.School of Water Conservancy and Environment, University of Jinan, Jinan 250022, China; 2.Shandong Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau, Jinan 250001, China)

Keywords:: Budyko hypothesis; runoff variation; attribution analysis; human activity; Yihe River

CLC:: P333

DOI:: 10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.02.020

Abstract:: Climate change and human activities are the main causes of runoff change. Therefore, calculating the contribution rate of climate change and human activities to runoff change in the Yi River basin can provide a certain reference for alleviating the water resources stress in the Yihe River basin. Based on the hydrometeorological data of temperature, wind speed and precipitation from 1960 to 2016, Mann-Kendall, ordered cluster analysis method and cumulative horizontal distance method were applied to analyze the variation trend and change point of precipitation and runoff in the Yihe Rver basin. Effects of climate change and human activities on runoff change were quantified by Budyko hydrothermal coupled equilibrium equation. The results showed that: the annual runoff depth of the basin decreased significantly from 1960 to 2016, and change points were in 1975 and 2003, respectively; Therefore, the runoff sequence of Yihe River was divided into three stages: 1960—1975(base period), 1976—2003(change period Ⅰ)and 2004—2016(change period Ⅱ); based on Budyko hydrothermal coupled equilibrium equation, the contributions of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and underlying surface to runoff change in change period Ⅰ and Ⅱ were calculated, respectively; the results indicated that decreasing runoff in change period Ⅰ resulted from underlying surface and precipitation change, with contribution rates of 51.42% and 49.43%, respectively; the decreasing of potential evapotranspiration led to increasing runoff, with contribution rate of -0.85%; the main reason for decreasing runoff in the change period Ⅱ was the change of underlying surface conditions, accounting for 73.11%, followed by precipitation, accounting for 42.53%; the decrease of potential evapotranspiration led to the increase of runoff, and the contribution rate was -15.64%. The change of runoff in Yihe River Basin was impacted jointly by human activities and climate change. With the development of economy and society, the influence of underlying surface change of runoff was increasing.

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Last Update: 2023-03-10