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[1]FENG Yelin,HE Zhonghua,JIAO Shulin,et al.Scenario Prediction of Extreme Precipitation in Guizhou Province Based on CMIP6 Climate Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2023,30(01):282-290.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.20220621.004]

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Scenario Prediction of Extreme Precipitation in Guizhou Province Based on CMIP6 Climate Model

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 30 Number of periods: 2023 01 Page number: 282-290 Column: Public date: 2023-01-10

Title:: Scenario Prediction of Extreme Precipitation in Guizhou Province Based on CMIP6 Climate Model

Author(s):: FENG Yelin, HE Zhonghua, JIAO Shulin, LIU Wei; (School of Geographic and Environment Science, Guizhou Normal University, Guiyang 550025, China)

Keywords:: CMIP6; extreme precipitation; SSPs scenarios; Guizhou Province

CLC:: P467

DOI:: 10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.20220621.004

Abstract:: In order to explore the characteristics of the future change of extreme precipitation in Guizhou Province under climate change, the temporal and spatial characteristics of the historical and future changes of four extreme precipitation indexes were analyzed by using the methods of Delta downscaling and trend analysis based on the station observation and daily precipitation data of five CMIP6 models. The results show that:(1)the CMIP6 model data modified by Delta has achieved good results and is suitable for the prediction of extreme precipitation in Guizhou Province;(2)from 1961 to 2019, the spatial distribution of R95P, R25mm and CWD in Guizhou Province was high in the south and low in the north, while the R95C showed obvious differences between east and west; except for CWD, the other three extreme precipitation indices showed the insignificant increasing trend from 1961 to 2019;(3)under the future three SSPs scenarios, the four extreme precipitation indices will all show an increasing trend both in time and space;(4)compared with the historical period, the four extreme indexes except R95C all increased and decreased; the spatial variation of R95P and R25mm is similar, showing decrease in the northwest compared with the historical period, and increase in the rest of the region, which increases with the increase of SSPs; CWD decreased in the central and southern regions, and increased in the rest regions, especially in the north, and was most significant under SSP126; R95C increased throughout the region, with the most significant changes in the midwest and SSP245. In general, in the context of climate change, extreme precipitation in Guizhou Province varies with different SSPs, but it will become more frequent on the whole. Therefore, prevention and response should be strengthened in the future.

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Last Update: 2023-01-10