[1]MA Xiaoyan,ZHU Xiaowen,ZHAO Jintao,et al.Analysis of Drought Characteristics and Driving Forces in the Urban Belt Along the Yellow River in Ningxia Based on SPEI[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(05):364-373.
Copy
Analysis of Drought Characteristics and Driving Forces in the Urban Belt Along the Yellow River in Ningxia Based on SPEI
Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume:
29
Number of periods:
2022 05
Page number:
364-373
Column:
Public date:
2022-08-20
- Title:
- Analysis of Drought Characteristics and Driving Forces in the Urban Belt Along the Yellow River in Ningxia Based on SPEI
- Keywords:
- Ningxia city group along the Yellow River; standard rainfall evapotranspiration index; mutation test; redundancy analysis
- CLC:
- K928
- DOI:
- -
- Abstract:
- The urban belt along the Yellow River in Ningxia is sensitive to climate change and its ecological environment is fragile. Exploring the driving mechanism of regional drought is of great significance for further research on the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin and optimize the management of regional agricultural water resources. Based on the meteorological data of the study area from 1995 to 2015, the Penman Montes model(PM model)and the standard rainfall evapotranspiration index(SPEI)were used to obtain the regional potential evapotranspiration and drought index, the Mann-Kendall mutation detection method, sliding t test and Pettitt mutation test were used to analyze the drought time change cycle in the study area, and the redundancy analysis method was used to quantitatively analyze the driving factors of drought in the urban belt along the Yellow River in Ningxia. The results show that:(1)on the seasonal scale, the single-season drought occurred frequently in the study area, mainly in spring and autumn; the overall trend from north to south was from high to bottom, and it mainly occurred in the northern region, a humidification trend was found with an overall rate of 0.013/decade;(2)the decreasing trend of drought on the annual scale was found in the entire belt, showing a trend from high to bottom from north to south;(3)the SPEI-12 value of the urban belt along the Yellow River in Ningxia showed the downward trend year by year during the study period; it was determined that there was an abnormal value in 2008 through three mutation detection functions, which was consistent with the precipitation distribution;(4)the interpretation rate of each environmental factor for the SPEI index was above 75%, and precipitation, temperature, and surface net radiation were the driving forces on SPEI value of major environmental factors; precipitation had the highest contribution rate to SPEI, and had a significant positive correlation with SPEI.
- References:
-
[1] Byun H R, Wilhite D A. Objective Quantification of Drought Severity and Duration[J]. Journal of Climate, 1999,12(9):2747-2756.
[2] 杨庆,李明星,郑子彦,等.7种气象干旱指数的中国区域适应性[J].中国科学:地球科学,2017,47(3):337-353.
[3] Zhang J, Sun F, Liu W, et al. Spatio-temporal patterns of drought evolution over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019,29(6):863-876.
[4] Zhang J, Shen Y. Spatio-temporal variations in extreme drought in China during 1961—2015[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019,29(1):67-83.
[5] He B, Lü A, Wu J, et al. Drought hazard assessment and spatial characteristics analysis in China[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2011,21(2):235-249.
[6] 马柱国,符淙斌,杨庆,等.关于我国北方干旱化及其转折性变化[J].大气科学,2018,42(4):951-961.
[7] 李柏贞,周广胜.干旱指标研究进展[J].生态学报,2014,34(5):1043-1052.
[8] Dai A. Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2013,3(1):52-58.
[9] Guttman N B. Comparing the palmer drought index and the standardized precipitation index 1[J]. Jawra Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 1998,34(1):113-121.
[10] 刘卫国,王曼,丁俊祥,等.帕默尔干旱指数在天山北坡典型绿洲干旱特征分析中的适用性[J].中国沙漠,2013,33(1):249-257.
[11] 庄少伟,左洪超,任鹏程,等.标准化降水蒸发指数在中国区域的应用[J].气候与环境研究,2013,18(5):617-625.
[12] Mckee T B, Doesken N J, Kleist J. The Relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales[C]//Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, Boston, 1993:179-183.
[13] 王芝兰,李耀辉,王素萍,等.1901—2012年中国西北地区东部多时间尺度干旱特征[J].中国沙漠,2015,35(6):1666-1673.
[14] 王芝兰,王劲松,李耀辉,等.标准化降水指数与广义极值分布干旱指数在西北地区应用的对比分析[J].高原气象,2013,32(3):839-847.
[15] Vicente-serrano S M, Beguería S, López-moreno J I. A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming:the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index[J]. Journal of Climate, 2010,23(7):1696-1718.
[16] Yao J, Zhao Y, Chen Y, et al. Multi-scale assessments of droughts: A case study in Xinjiang, China[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2018,630:444-452.
[17] 马柱国.我国北方干湿演变规律及其与区域增暖的可能联系[J].地球物理学报,2005(05):1011-1018.
[18] Vicente-serrano S M, Beguería S, López-moreno J I, et al. A new global 0.5 gridded dataset(1901-2006)of a multiscalar drought index: comparison with current drought index datasets based on the palmer drought severity index[J]. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2010,11(4):1033-1043.
[19] 王林,陈文.近百年西南地区干旱的多时间尺度演变特征[J].气象科技进展,2012,2(4):21-26.
[20] 苏宏新,李广起.基于SPEI的北京低频干旱与气候指数关系[J].生态学报,2012,32(17):5467-5475.
[21] 方黎明,王多银,房皓.基于标准化降水蒸散指数的宁夏中部干旱带干旱趋势分析[J].科学技术与工程,2019,19(14):336-345.
[22] Soh Y, Koo C H, Huang Y, et al. Application of artificial intelligence models for the prediction of standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(spei)at Langat River Basin, Malaysia[J]. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 2018,144:164-173.
[23] 曹博,张勃,马彬,等.基于SPEI指数的长江中下游流域干旱时空特征分析[J].生态学报,2018,38(17):6258-6267.
[24] Nedealcov M, Rileanu V, Sîrbu R, et al. The use of standardized indicators(spi and spei)in predicting droughts over the republic of moldova territory[J]. Present Environment and Sustainable Development, 2015(2):149-158.
[25] Lavaysse C, Vogt J, Toreti A, et al. On the use of weather regimes to forecast meteorological drought over Europe[J]. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2018,18(12):3297-3309.
[26] Wang F, Wang Z, Yang H, et al. Study of the temporal and spatial patterns of drought in the yellow river basin based on spei[J]. Sci. China Earth Sci, 2018,61(8):1098-1111.
[27] Xiao M, Zhang Q, Singh V P. Influences of Enso, Nao, Iod and Pdo on seasonal precipitation regimes in the Yangtze River Basin, China[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2015,35(12):3556-3567.
[28] 李运刚,何娇楠,李雪.基于SPEI和SDI指数的云南红河流域气象水文干旱演变分析[J].地理科学进展,2016,35(6):758-767.
[29] Vicente-serrano S M, López-moreno J I. The influence of atmospheric circulation at different spatial scales on winter drought variability through a semi-arid climatic gradient in northeast Spain[J]. International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2006,26(11):1427-1453.
[30] 陈亚宁,王怀军,王志成,等.西北干旱区极端气候水文事件特征分析[J].干旱区地理,2017,40(1):1-9.
[31] 李明,王贵文,张莲芝.基于SPEI的中国东北地区干旱分区及其气候特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(6):65-70.
[32] 王允,刘普幸,曹立国,等.基于SPI的近53 a宁夏干旱时空演变特征研究[J].水土保持通报,2014,34(1):296-302.
[33] 杨建玲,冯建民,郑广芬,等.宁夏中南部地区干旱变化趋势分析[J].中国沙漠,2012,32(3):842-851.
[34] 高祖桥,白永平,周亮,等.宁夏沿黄城市带湿地景观格局演变特征及驱动力[J].应用生态学报,2020,31(10):3499-3508.
[35] 张荣群,乔月霞,刘欢.湿地景观演变与土地利用强度变化的响应关系:以银川平原为例[J].测绘科学,2015,40(208):54-59.
[36] 张璐,朱仲元,席小康,等.基于SPEI的锡林河流域干旱演化特征分析[J].干旱区研究,2020,37(4):819-829.
[37] Qiant D, Trenberthk E. Simulationofgloballand Surfaceconditionsfrom1948—2004[J]. Parti: Forcingdata Andevaluation, 2006, 7(5): 953.
[38] 毛飞,张光智,徐祥德.参考作物蒸散量的多种计算方法及其结果的比较[J].应用气象学报,2000(S1):128-136.
[39] 张乐园,王弋,陈亚宁.基于SPEI指数的中亚地区干旱时空分布特征[J].干旱区研究,2020,37(2):331-340.
[40] Trenberth K E, Dai A, Van der schrier G, et al. Global warming and changes in drought[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2014,4(1):17-22.
[41] Ayantobo O O, Li Y, Song S, et al. Spatial comparability of drought characteristics and related return periods in mainland China over 1961—2013[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2017,550:549-567.
[42] 姚俊强,毛炜峄,胡文峰,等.1961—2015年新疆区域SPEI干旱指数数据集[J].中国科学数据:中英文网络版,2019,4(3):112-121.
[43] 肖飞艳.黑河中游土地利用和景观变化的时空特征与驱动因素[D].西安:长安大学,2019.
[44] 关静,梁川,赵璐,等.3种干旱指数在宁夏中部干旱带的适用性分析[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(3):122-127.
- Similar References:
Memo
-
Last Update:
2022-08-20