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[1]GONG Chengqi,DONG Xiaohua,DONG Lijun,et al.Analysis of Precipitation Characteristics and Future Trends in the REOF Subarea of the Yalong River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(03):78-87.

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Analysis of Precipitation Characteristics and Future Trends in the REOF Subarea of the Yalong River Basin

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 29 Number of periods: 2022 03 Page number: 78-87 Column: Public date: 2022-04-20

Title:: Analysis of Precipitation Characteristics and Future Trends in the REOF Subarea of the Yalong River Basin

Author(s):: GONG Chengqi^1,2,3, DONG Xiaohua^1,2,3, DONG Lijun^1,2,3, WU Hanyu^1,2,3, OUYANG Xijun^1,2,3; (1.College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang, Hubei 443002, China; 2.Engineering Research Center for the Ecological Environment of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, Ministry of Education, Yichang, Hubei 443002, China; 3.Hubei Collaborative Innovation Center for Water Resources Security, Wuhan, Hubei 430072, China)

Keywords:: Yalong River Basin; rotating empirical orthogonal function; Daniel trend analysis; mutation test; future trend analysis

CLC:: P467; P333.6

DOI:: -

Abstract:: The study of regional precipitation is of great significance for ensuring the ecological environment, developing effective irrigation area, agricultural production and optimizing reservoir operation. Taking the Yalong River Basin as the research object, we used the precipitation data of 13 weather stations in the basin from 1961 to 2018, used the rotating empirical orthogonal function decomposition(REOF)to divide into 6 geographic regions, and combined with Daniel trend analysis and Mann-Kendall mutation Test, sliding T test and R/S re-standard range method to analyze the precipitation change characteristics and future precipitation trends of 6 districts in the Yalong River Basin from 1961 to 2018. The results show that:(1)the inter-decadal variation of precipitation in each area was obvious, and the inter-annual variation was not obvious, which was consistent with the overall precipitation characteristics of the basin; the overall precipitation in area Ⅰ continued to decrease, and the overall precipitation in areas Ⅱ—Ⅵ was on the rise, and the overall precipitation in the basin was on the rise;(2)the abrupt years of precipitation in Ⅰ—Ⅵ areas were 1981, 2002; 1981; 2005, 2014; 1978, 1997, 2001, 2011; 1980, 2000; 1980, 1998, 2001;(3)in the six sub-regions, the precipitation in area Ⅳ will decrease compared with the past trend in the future; the precipitation in area I, Ⅱ, Ⅲ, V and Ⅵ will be the same and strong sustainability; the precipitation in District Ⅲ has the longest rising trend and the strongest sustainability, which is most consistent with the past trend; the during of the future trend of precipitation in the 6 districts affected by the past trend is 12 years, 10 years, 8 years, 10 years., 6 years, 13 years, respectively. The precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yalong River has the largest increase, while the precipitation in the southwestern part of the lower reaches(Zone I)continues to decrease significantly, which has a negative impact on hydropower, ecological management and agricultural production. Significant interdecadal changes in precipitation in 6 districts increase the uncertainty of local droughts and floods. The past general trend of precipitation will have a longer impact on the future trend, which is of scientific guiding significance for the reasonable protection of vegetation ecology, soil and water conservation, optimization of reservoir scheduling and development of the effective irrigation area and agricultural production.

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Last Update: 2022-04-20