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[1]XIE Lingling,XU Jinlong,ZANG Junmei,et al.Simulation and Prediction of Land Use Change in Guangxi Based on Markov-FLUS Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(02):249-254+264.

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Simulation and Prediction of Land Use Change in Guangxi Based on Markov-FLUS Model

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 29 Number of periods: 2022 02 Page number: 249-254+264 Column: Public date: 2022-03-20

Title:: Simulation and Prediction of Land Use Change in Guangxi Based on Markov-FLUS Model

Author(s):: XIE Lingling¹, XU Jinlong¹, ZANG Junmei², HUANG Tianneng³; (1.Institute for Maritime Silk Road and Guangxi Regional Development, Guangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanning 530004, China; 2.School of Public Administration, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510000, China; 3.Economic and Trade College, Guangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanning 530004, China)

Keywords:: Markov model; FLUS model; land use change; simulation and prediction; farmland protection

CLC:: F301.24

DOI:: -

Abstract:: Farmland protection is the top priority to ensure food security and social and economic stability, and the prediction analysis on land use change is an important reference for adjusting farmland protection policies. In order to explore the effectiveness of the protection of cultivated land and promote the rational allocation of land resources in Guangxi, this paper focuses on the farmland protection and predicts the quantity and spatial change of land use in Guangxi by 2025 based on two different scenarios of unrestricted development and farmland protection using the Markov-FLUS model. The differences in farmland use under two different scenarios were also compared. The effectiveness and main obstacles of farmland protection were analyzed. The results show that:(1)Guangxi had made the noticeable achievements in its urban construction; from 2005 to 2015, the lands for urban construction, transportation infrastructure and other construction purpose increased by 893 km², with a growth of 77.25%; the simulation and prediction show that urban land area will continue to increase by 2025 under two different scenarios, but its expansion will slow down when the farmland is protected;(2)Guangxi had achieved good results in ecological protection; the simulation and prediction of land use under two different scenarios show that ecological land areas such as forest, grassland and water area will continue to increase by 2025;(3)Guangxi still has a long way to go to protect its farmland, which decreased by 626 km² from 2005 to 2015; the simulation and prediction under two different land use scenarios show that its farmland area will continue to decrease by 2025; however, under the farmland protection scenario, the pace of decreasing farmland area will slow down to a certain extent;(4)the leading factors affecting farmland protection in Guangxi were various in different development stages; roads and other infrastructure construction were the main factors affecting the farmland protection from 2005 to 2015. With the accelerated social and economic development, the expansion of urban construction land in Nanning, Guilin, Liuzhou and coastal cities such as Qinzhou, Beihai and Fangchenggang, and increasing forestry land in northwestern and southern Guangxi are the main reasons for the decrease in farmland in Guangxi from 2015 to 2025.

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Last Update: 2022-04-20