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[1]FU Shulin,LIANG Liping,LIU Yanguo.Assessment on Geohazard Susceptibility in Xinlong Section of Yalong River Based on CF-Logistic Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2021,28(04):404-410.

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Assessment on Geohazard Susceptibility in Xinlong Section of Yalong River Based on CF-Logistic Model

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 28 Number of periods: 2021 04 Page number: 404-410 Column: Public date: 2021-08-10

Title:: Assessment on Geohazard Susceptibility in Xinlong Section of Yalong River Based on CF-Logistic Model

Author(s):: FU Shulin¹, LIANG Liping², LIU Yanguo³; (1.Department of Culture and Tourism, Taiyuan University, Taiyuan 030032, China; 2.Geophysical Prospecting Team of Sichuan Geological & Mineral Bureau, Chengdu 610000, China; 3.School of Environment and Resource, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang, Sichuan 621010, China)

Keywords:: susceptibility; certainty factor method; logistic regression; Yalong River; Xinlong County

CLC:: P694

DOI:: -

Abstract:: In order to reduce the impact of geological disasters on human production and life, the areas prone to geological disasters were divided through the assessment of susceptibility, which is of great significance to the prevention and control of geological disasters. Taking the Xinlong section of the middle and upper reaches of the Yalong River as the research area, we selected the gradient, aspect, undulation, slope shape, engineering rock group, rainfall, distance from water system, distance from road and distance from fault as evaluation factors. Based on 236 hidden danger points of geological disasters, the determination coefficient method was used to calculate the certainty factor(CF)of each evaluation factor classification, the CF value was brought into the logistic regression model(Logistic), and the evaluation factors that had not passed the significance test were eliminated to establish CF-Logistic model. Through the ArcGIS spatial analysis platform, the susceptibilities of geological disasters of the study area were evaluated, and the single CF model was compared, and the accuracy of the model was verified by the ROC curve. The results show that the extremely high-prone areas mainly distribute on both sides of the G227 Highway that runs through the north and south, and these areas are also the main bank of the Yalong River, cover the area of 245.53 km², and account for 2.69% of the total area; the high-prone areas mainly distribute around the central fault, cover the area of 573.48 km², and account for the proportion 6.28% of the total area; the medium, low and very low prone areas are 1 518.54 km², 4 245.11 km², and 2 553.05 km², respectively. The model accuracy results show that the CF-Logistic model(0.889)is better than the single CF model(0.878),and can more accurately divide the susceptibility zone of the study area.

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Last Update: 2021-08-20