[1]ZHOU Junjun,FAN Xingang,YANG Meiling,et al.Analysis and Prediction of Influential Factors on Ecological Efficiency-Case of Three Counties in Suothern Ningxia[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2020,27(05):318-325.
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Analysis and Prediction of Influential Factors on Ecological Efficiency-Case of Three Counties in Suothern Ningxia
Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume:
27
Number of periods:
2020 05
Page number:
318-325
Column:
目次
Public date:
2020-08-20
- Title:
- Analysis and Prediction of Influential Factors on Ecological Efficiency-Case of Three Counties in Suothern Ningxia
- CLC:
- F205
- DOI:
- -
- Abstract:
- In order to coordinate the relationship between economic development, resource conservation and ecological protection, taking Tongxin County, Xiji County and Longde County as research areas, we used extended exergy analysis method, geographic detector and grey prediction model to analyze the ecological efficiency and its influencing factors of the three counties in southern Ningxia from 2008 to 2017. Finally, we measured its development trend to propose green development model with county, exploring the County development model that was compatible with the resources and environmental carrying capacity. The results show that:(1)from the characteristics of change between 2008 to 2017, the ecological efficiency of Tongxin County was greater than those of the other two counties, and the change of Xiji County was relatively flat; the level of Longde County was higher than those of the other two counties. The difference in ecological efficiency among the three counties was quite significant, but the overall level of development was low, and there was room for the improvement;(2)in terms of influencing factors, such as urbanization rate, the proportion of primary production to GDP, per capita GDP, total government investment, and scientific and technological expenditure had the most significant impact on the ecological efficiency of the three counties. The urbanization rate was the dominant influence factor in Tongxin County and Xiji County; the ratio of primary production to GDP was the dominant factor in Longde County; the overall impact of various factors on the three counties was similar;(3)with respect to judging from the forecasting trend, from 2018 to 2025, Tongxin County showed the sustained and slow downward trend, Xiji County showed a continuous upward trend, and the change range of Longde County was small; cenerally, the forecasting trends of ecological efficiency in the three counties were significantly different.
- References:
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Last Update:
2020-08-25