[1]TIAN Yichao,WANG Shijie,BAI Xiaoyong,et al.Response of Runoff to Climate and Human Activities in Tongzi River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2020,27(03):76-82.
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Response of Runoff to Climate and Human Activities in Tongzi River Basin
Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume:
27
Number of periods:
2020 03
Page number:
76-82
Column:
Public date:
2020-04-20
- Title:
- Response of Runoff to Climate and Human Activities in Tongzi River Basin
- Keywords:
- runoff; climate change; human activities; response and contribution rates; Tongzi River Basin
- CLC:
- P333
- DOI:
- -
- Abstract:
- Runoff change is driven by climate change and human activities. Quantitative analysis of the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff change has become a core scientific issue in the study of hydrological cycle under changing environment. Based on the long time series hydrological and meteorological monitoring data of Erlangba Hydrological Station from 1975 to 2015, the catastrophic characteristics of runoff in Tongzi River Basin were diagnosed by the method of cumulative anomaly and sliding T test, and the contribution rate of climate change and human activities to runoff change was quantitatively evaluated by the method of cumulative slope change rate comparison. The results indicated that:(1)the annual runoff and precipitation in the region showed a decreasing trend, and the decreasing rates were 0.05 billion m3/year and -3.10 mm/year, respectively;(2)the abrupt change year of multi-year runoff was the year of 2003, years of abundant water covered the period from 1975 to 2003(the average annual runoff was 1.526 billion m3), and the years of scarce water covered the period from 2003 to 2015(the average annual runoff was 1.244 billion m3), the runoff decreased by 18.48% after mutation year compared with that before mutation year;(3)there was no significant decrease in the annual runoff in the basin over the years; the cycle period of runoff in autumn was 24-year, that of spring was 7-year, and that of winter and summer did not exist;(4)the resonance periods of runoff and precipitation verified by 95% red noise were 0.8～2.8-year and 3.8～6.5-year; runoff in the river basin had a certain lag effect on precipitation change, and the lag time scale was between 1～2 years;(5)based on the period from 1975 to 2003, the contribution of precipitation and human activities to the runoff of Tongzi River Basin reached up to 43.42% and 56.58%, respectively, in the period of TB from 2004 to 2015; if the influence of evaporation on the runoff of tongzi river basin is taken into account, the contribution of human activities to the change of runoff of Tongzi Rver Basin will increase to 86.83% in the period of TB. This study can provide a method reference for the quantitative assessment of the contribution rate of climate change and human activities to runoff in the typical Karst basin.
- References:
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Last Update:
2020-04-30