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[1]DAI Xiaoying,XU Youpeng,LIN Zhixin,et al.Analysis on Variation and Influencing Factors of Runoff in Qinhuaihe River Basin in the Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2019,26(04):68-73.

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Analysis on Variation and Influencing Factors of Runoff in Qinhuaihe River Basin in the Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 26 Number of periods: 2019 04 Page number: 68-73 Column: Public date: 2019-06-11

Title:: Analysis on Variation and Influencing Factors of Runoff in Qinhuaihe River Basin in the Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

Author(s):: DAI Xiaoying, XU Youpeng, LIN Zhixin, WANG Qiang, XU Yu, GAO Bin; School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China

Keywords:: runoff change; climate and landscape change; coupled energy-water balance equation; contribution ratio; Qinhuaihe River Basin

CLC:: P333

DOI:: -

Abstract:: The Qinhuaihe River Basin is located in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River which is highly developed area in China. In order to quantitatively evaluate the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff and their contribution rates to runoff, the hydrological and meteorological trends in the Qinhuaihe River Basin from 1987 to 2015 were analyzed by employing the accumulative anomaly and linear trend analysis method. The coupled energy-water balance equation based on the Budyko hypothesis was employed to estimate climate elasticity and landscape elasticity of runoff,which were then used for attribution analysis of runoff change in Qinhuaihe River Basin. The main results were showed as follows: (1) An increasing trend of annual runoff was revealed during the period 1987—2015 in Qinhuaihe River Basin. An abrupt change was identified around the year 2001, the entire period was divided into two parts. (2) The trend of annual precipitation was not obvious, but the annual potential evapotranspiration showed the increasing trend. Compared with the period before the abrupt change, the annual average precipitation increased by 2.42%, the potential evapotranspiration increased by 6.24%, and the landscape parameter decreased by 49.77% during the period 2001—2015. (3) The runoff elasticity to the precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and landscape were 0.69, -0.92 and -0.64, respectively. The contribution rates of the climate change and landscape change were -9.6% and 115.5%, respectively, and the human activities was the main factor that led to the runoff increase. There were other factors that led to the runoff change in Qinhuaihe River Basin.

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