[1]QU Wengang,XU Panpan,QIAN Hui.Analysis of Precipitation Characteristics and Forecast of Annual Precipitation in Huashan Region[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2019,26(03):128-134.
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Analysis of Precipitation Characteristics and Forecast of Annual Precipitation in Huashan Region
Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume:
26
Number of periods:
2019 03
Page number:
128-134
Column:
Public date:
2019-04-12
- Title:
- Analysis of Precipitation Characteristics and Forecast of Annual Precipitation in Huashan Region
- Keywords:
- precipitation characteristics analysis; forecast; moving average Markov prediction model; cloud model; Huashan region
- CLC:
- P426.61+4;TV125
- DOI:
- -
- Abstract:
- The precipitation data from 1953 to 2013 in Huashan station were used in this paper, and the Mann-Kendall test method, ordered clustering method, cloud model and the moving average Markov prediction model were used to analyze and predict the precipitation characteristics of Huashan region. The results showed that monthly precipitation distribution was extremely uneven, mainly concentrated in July, August and September in Huashan region. The precipitation in winter and spring was small, the distribution was uniform, and the stability was high, but in summer and autumn, the precipitation was more, the distribution was uneven, and the stability was low. The changes of precipitation in summer and autumn directly lead to the uneven distribution of annual precipitation. The annual precipitation and the 3-year moving average annual precipitation showed the decreasing trend, and they all passed the 99% significance test. The trend of precipitation over the next 10 years will increase based on the prediction by the moving average Markov prediction model. The mean precipitation in 2014-2023 is 767.32 mm, the linear change rate is 29.3 mm/decade, and the forecast of 2019 is the smallest, 634.3 mm, the forecast of 2023 is the largest, 883.31 mm. This study can provide guidance for the prevention and control of natural disasters such as soil erosion and landslide in Huashan region.
- References:
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1900-01-01