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[1]LU Jing,ZHANG Yuhu,GAO Feng,et al.Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation in the Sanjiang Plain in Recent 40 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2019,26(02):272-282.

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Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation in the Sanjiang Plain in Recent 40 Years

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 26 Number of periods: 2019 02 Page number: 272-282 Column: Public date: 2019-04-28

Title:: Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation in the Sanjiang Plain in Recent 40 Years

Author(s):: LU Jing¹, ZHANG Yuhu¹, GAO Feng¹, LIU Yujie²; 1. College of Resources, Environment and Tourism, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China;
2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

Keywords:: extreme precipitation index; Mann-Kendall method; cumulative distance; Hurst index; Sanjiang Plain

CLC:: P426.61

DOI:: -

Abstract:: Within the context of climate change, extreme climate events occurred frequently. By using climatic tendency rate, Kriging interpolation method, Mann-Kendall nonparametric statistical test, accumulative distance leveling, R/S analysis, the variation characteristics and trend prediction of extreme precipitation process in the target area were analyzed based on long-term(1979—2014) daily precipitation data from 21 meteorological stations. The results showed a decreasing trend on the extreme precipitation over the past 40 years in the Sanjiang Plain, which was mainly reflected by the precipitation intensity. Moreover, there were obvious mutations in CDD, SDⅡ, and RX5day. There was a significant spatial difference in the extreme precipitation variation trend. The percentages of sites with decreasing RX1day, RX5day and R99p were 52.4%, 61.9% and 61.9%, respectively. The total annual precipitation (PRCPTOT) was presented as ’increase in Northwest-Southeast and decrease in Northeast-Southwest’. According to the historical trend of the extreme precipitation index and the prediction of the superposition of the Hurst index, it can be seen that the future extreme precipitation index will present the rising trend in the future. These results can provide scientific basis for making full use of natural precipitation and predicting the influence of agrometeorological disasters in the agricultural area of Sanjiang Plain.

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