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[1]YAO Manfei,DANG Suzhen,MENG Meili,et al.Copula-Based Analysis of Occrent Probability on Rich-Scarce Runoff and Sediment in the Jinghe River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2019,26(01):192-196,202.

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Copula-Based Analysis of Occrent Probability on Rich-Scarce Runoff and Sediment in the Jinghe River Basin

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 26 Number of periods: 2019 01 Page number: 192-196,202 Column: Public date: 2019-02-28

Title:: Copula-Based Analysis of Occrent Probability on Rich-Scarce Runoff and Sediment in the Jinghe River Basin

Author(s):: YAO Manfei¹, DANG Suzhen², MENG Meili¹, ZHANG Wenge², YIN Huijuan², DONG Guotao²; 1. School of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China;
2. Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research, Yellow River Conservancy Commission, Zhengzhou 450003, China

Keywords:: Jinghe River Basin; Copula function; relationship between runoff and sediment discharge; probability of rich-scarce occurrence

CLC:: P333.4

DOI:: -

Abstract:: Based on the annual runoff and sediment discharge data of the main control hydrological stations in the Jinghe River Basin, P-Ⅲ distribution curve was applied to fit the marginal distribution of annual runoff and sediment discharge. Then the Copula function was used to establish the joint distribution model of runoff and sediment discharge, to calculate the occurent probability of rich-scarce runoff and sediment discharge in Jinghe River Basin. The results showed that:(1) all of Clayton Copula, Frank Copula and Gumbel copula functions could well simulate the joint distribution of runoff and sediment discharge; according to the ordinary least square (OLS) and AIC (Akaike information criterion) information criterion, the Frank Copula function was used to simulate the joint distribution of runoff and sediment discharge in each hydrological station; (2) according to the occurrent probability of rich-scarce runoff and sediment discharge of 8 hydrological stations, the frequency synchronization of rich-scarce runoff and sediment was larger than the asynchronous frequency; the frequency of rich water-rich sediment approximately equaled the frequency of scarce water-scarce sediment, and the frequency of normal water-normal sediment was the lowest; (3) the frequency of the encounter of opposite status of runoff and sediment (the frequency of rich water-scarce sediment and the frequency of scarce water-rich sediment) was the lowest among the asynchronous frequencies of rich-scarce runoff and sediment occurrences. The research results can provide the theoretical basis for the planning of watershed management, ecological restoration and disaster prevention and reduction.

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