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[1]HE Bing,GAO Fan,TANG Xiaoyu,et al.Diagnosis of Variation of the Relationship Between Hydrological and Meteorological Elements in Arid Rnland Rivers of Xinjiang Based on the Sliding Copula Function[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2019,26(01):155-161.

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Diagnosis of Variation of the Relationship Between Hydrological and Meteorological Elements in Arid Rnland Rivers of Xinjiang Based on the Sliding Copula Function

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 26 Number of periods: 2019 01 Page number: 155-161 Column: Public date: 2019-02-28

Title:: Diagnosis of Variation of the Relationship Between Hydrological and Meteorological Elements in Arid Rnland Rivers of Xinjiang Based on the Sliding Copula Function

Author(s):: HE Bing, GAO Fan, TANG Xiaoyu, TAN Shan; College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China

Keywords:: variation diagnosis; Copula function; data sliding; Ulungur River

CLC:: P333.6

DOI:: -

Abstract:: The monthly runoff and meteorological data covering the years from 1959 to 2015 were collected from the Ertai hydrological station at the mountain-pass of the Ulungur River Basin headstream area to synthetically analyze the period and the trend of hydrological and meteorological elements using the cumulative average deviation, R/S analysis and Mann-Kendall trend test. Furthermore, the correlations between runoff, precipitation and temperature were analyzed using the Pearson correlation method, while the internal relationship and the variation characteristics between runoff and meteorological elements such as precipitation and temperature were analyzed by combining the Copula function with the data sliding window technology. The results found that the annual runoff in the headstream area of the Ulungur River decreased with the micro rate fluctuation of 2.6×10⁶ m³/decade and the trend would increase (Hurst index H=0.36 < 0.5) with a less significant tendency (U_α/2=-1.96 < U=-0.15 < 0) in the future; smilarly, the annual precipitation during the same period was found to increase with the weak growth rate of 7.52 mm/decade, and the fluctuation was more frequent after 1990, and the trend would increase (Hurst index H=0.63 > 0.5) in a significant tendency (U=2.57 > U_a/2=1.96) in the future, and annual precipitation was the most important factor affecting runoff in Ulungur River Basin headstream area. Combing annual precipitation with annual runoff to form joint sequence, we analyzed the variation characteristics and the variation point diagnosis of the long runoff and precipitation joint sequence in Ulungur River Basin headstream area on the basis of sliding Copula function. The variation of runoff precipitation relationship occurred in 1979, while the Clayton-Copula distribution function in the first stage (1959-1979) shifted to the Gauss-Copula distribution function in the second stage (1980-2015). The results of this study can reflect the real-world scenario. The primary reason for the variation in the runoff sequence in the study area was the significant decreasing trend in the precipitation and annual average temperature in the first stage (1959-1979) along with the increase in the intensity of human activities since 1980. The construction of the reservoir with the total volume of about 30 million m³ on trunk stream and tributaries upper of the Ertai hydrological station changed the natural correlation between the runoff yield and concentration of the basin, and the runoff between the upstream and downstream.

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