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[1]ZHOU Yingxia,WANG Quanjiu,ZHANG Jihong,et al.Simulation Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on the Yield of Winter Wheat in Shaanxi Province Based on the AquaCrop Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,25(06):357-364.

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Simulation Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on the Yield of Winter Wheat in Shaanxi Province Based on the AquaCrop Model

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 25 Number of periods: 2018 06 Page number: 357-364 Column: Public date: 2018-10-26

Title:: Simulation Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on the Yield of Winter Wheat in Shaanxi Province Based on the AquaCrop Model

Author(s):: ZHOU Yingxia¹, WANG Quanjiu^1,2, ZHANG Jihong¹, TAN Shuai¹, HE Bin¹; 1. State Key Laboratory Base of Eco-Hydraulic Engineering in Arid Area, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710048, China;
2. State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Losses Plateau, Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Northwest A & F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China

Keywords:: temperature; CO₂ concentration; AquaCrop model; winter wheat yield

CLC:: S512.1;P467

DOI:: -

Abstract:: Analysis of change in meteorological factors like temperature and precipitation during 1957—2013, the effects of temperature and CO₂ concentration on winter wheat yield were simulated by AquaCrop model under current rainfall condition in three regions (Yan’an, Changwu and Ankang) of Shaanxi Province. The results showed that the annual temperature increased by 0.1℃, the winter wheat yield in Changwu and Ankang were reduced by 0.3% and 0.7%, respectively, while it increased by 0.5% in Yan’an, when annual CO₂concentration increased by 20 μmol/mol in Yan’an and Ankang, the winter wheat yield increased by 3.6% and 4.2%, respectively, the annual CO₂ concentration in Changwu increased by 10 μmol/mol, the yield increased by 2.2%; when the annual temperature and CO₂ concentration rose simultaneously, i. e., temperature rose by 0.1℃, CO₂ concentration of increased by 20 μmol/mol in Yan’an and Ankang, increased by 10 μmol/mol in Changwu, the winter wheat yield increased by 4.0%, 2.0% and 3.6% in Yan’an, Changwu and Ankang, respectively. Only considering the variation of temperature and CO₂ concentration, the winter white yield had different preferences because of the variation of regions. Under three typical years (i. e., dry, normal and wet year), the winter wheat yield may be increased by 3.3%～10.3% in Yan’an, 2.3%～10.0% in Changwu and 1.8%～9.8% in Ankang in the next 18 years compared to that in 2012. Therefore, the increases of temperature and CO₂ concentration, the warm-dry and high-carbon as well as the warm-wet and high-carbon climate patterns were conducive to increasing of the winter wheat yield. The increasing rate decreased in the order: Yan’an > Changwu > Ankang, which indicated that it would be possible to increase the winter wheat planting area moderately in order to increase agricultural output in the northern Shaanxi.

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