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[1]XU Panpan,LIN Tao,QIAN Hui,et al.Trend Analysis and Prediction of Atmospheric Precipitation in Xi’an During 1951-2015[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,25(05):313-318,336.

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Trend Analysis and Prediction of Atmospheric Precipitation in Xi’an During 1951-2015

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 25 Number of periods: 2018 05 Page number: 313-318,336 Column: Public date: 2018-09-06

Title:: Trend Analysis and Prediction of Atmospheric Precipitation in Xi’an During 1951-2015

Author(s):: XU Panpan^1,2, LIN Tao^1,2,3, QIAN Hui^1,2, YANG Mi^1,2; 1. School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710054, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological Effects in Arid Region, Ministry of Education, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710054, China;
3. First Highway Consultants Co., LTD, Xian 710075, China

Keywords:: utilizable precipitation; atmosphere precipitation resource; Xi’an City; stepwise regressive periodic analysis

CLC:: P426.62⁺3

DOI:: -

Abstract:: Based on the monthly precipitation and temperature data of Xi’an City from 1951 to 2015, the characteristics of changes in atmosphere precipitation resource were analyzed by means of Takahashi’s evaporation equation. And the trend of the atmosphere precipitation resource for the next ten years was forecasted by using stepwise regression analysis. The results indicated that the distribution of precipitation resource was uneven in Xi’an within the year, and the proportion of spring, summer and autumn was as high as over 95%, while the proportion of winter was very small. On the monthly scale, seasonal scale and annual scale, the utilization rate of precipitation in Xi’an was generally low, and the evaporation rate was generally high. The temperature change in Xi’an was on the rise, and precipitation and utilizable precipitation were decreasing. Under the background of global climatic warming, the response of summer and winter utilizable precipitation was not obvious in the cold climate, while utilizable precipitation of other periods significantly responsed to different period climates. The annual precipitation, annual evaporation and utilizable annual precipitation will be dominated by negative anomaly in the next 10 years. Therefore, the downward trend of atmospheric precipitation may persist.

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