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[1]LI Zheng,HE Wei,PAN Hongyi,et al.Dynamic Prediction and Early Warning of Cultivated Land Ecological Security in Sichuan Province Based on Improved TOPSIS Method and ARIMA Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,25(03):217-223.

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Dynamic Prediction and Early Warning of Cultivated Land Ecological Security in Sichuan Province Based on Improved TOPSIS Method and ARIMA Model

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 25 Number of periods: 2018 03 Page number: 217-223 Column: Public date: 2018-04-10

Title:: Dynamic Prediction and Early Warning of Cultivated Land Ecological Security in Sichuan Province Based on Improved TOPSIS Method and ARIMA Model

Author(s):: LI Zheng^1,2, HE Wei^1,2, PAN Hongyi^1,2, CHEN Lin^1,2; 1. Key Laboratory of Southwest Land Resources Evaluation and Monitoring of Ministry of Education, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610068, China;
2. College of Geography and Resources Science, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610068, China

Keywords:: ecological safety of cultivated land; early warning; improved TOPSIS; ARIMA; Sichuan Province

CLC:: F323.22

DOI:: -

Abstract:: Study on the early warning of cultivated land ecological security can guide the sustainable utilization of cultivated land resources. Based on the DPSIR model, the evaluation index system of cultivated land ecological security was constructed based on 21 cities in Sichuan Province. The improved entropy TOPSIS method was used to analyze the police situation, and the ARIMA model was used to simulate the trend of police intelligence changes in the next five years. The results show that:(1) ARIMA model has high fitting ability, which can fit the development trend of cultivated land ecological security in Sichuan Province during 2015-2020; (2) in general, from 2005 to 2019, the ecological security of cultivated land in Sichuan Province from the ‘heavy police’ to ‘the police’, the early warning index rose from 0.397 in 2005 to 0.501 in 2019, the highest value of 0.524 was found in 2014, the overall trend presented the rising volatility, indicating that the possibility of serious ecological security problems became small; (3) in terms of subsystems, during the period from 2005 to 2019, the ecological security system of cultivated land was the main system that affected the change of police intelligence, in this system, the warning value fluctuated and the warning rose to state, driving force, state, impact and response system, early warning value was increasing year by year, the alarm level decreased year by year; (4) in the next five years, there will be obvious differences in the regional pressure of cultivated land in Sichuan Province, and different regional response measures will be different. The fist and secondary areas will be the key areas for future regulation.

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