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[1]WANG Weina,GAO Ruizhong,WANG Xixi,et al.Quantitative Analysis of Runoff Variations as Affected by Climate Variability and Human Activity in the Xilin River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,25(02):347-353.

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Quantitative Analysis of Runoff Variations as Affected by Climate Variability and Human Activity in the Xilin River Basin

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 25 Number of periods: 2018 02 Page number: 347-353 Column: Public date: 2018-04-03

Title:: Quantitative Analysis of Runoff Variations as Affected by Climate Variability and Human Activity in the Xilin River Basin

Author(s):: WANG Weina¹, GAO Ruizhong¹, WANG Xixi², LIU Tingxi¹, BAI Yong¹; 1. College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot 010018, China;
2. Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia 23529, USA

Keywords:: runoff; variation mechanism; drivers; slope inflection of cumulative variable curve; Xilin River Basin

CLC:: P333

DOI:: -

Abstract:: Various factors can be related to grassland degradation and environmental deterioration in the grassland inland river basins of Inner Mongolia Plateau. To protect the vulnerable grassland ecosystem, it is needed to understand the variation mechanisms of runoff and the causal factors. Using data on hydrology, meteorology, and socioeconomics from 1963 to 2015 of the Xilin River basin, we identified runoff variations at various time scales, including age, hydrologic year, and season, and analyzed contributions of climate variability and human activity to the identified variations. The identification was done using four methods, namely cumulative anomaly, cumulative double-mass curve, modified Mann-Kendal (M-K) trend test, and slope inflection of cumulative variable curve. The results showed that regardless of the time scales and at a significance level (α=0.05), the runoff exhibited the significant decreasing trend while the climate variables (e. g., precipitation) did not show any significant trend, but the socioeconomics had the rapid increasing trend. The runoff reached its minimal value in 2000s, which was 54.9% smaller than that in 1990s. Both the precipitation and runoff exhibited the abrupt change around 1998. About 30.34% of the post-versus pre-1998 runoff decrease might be caused by the responding precipitation decrease, while the remaining 69.66% could be attributed to human activity. Thus, for the study basin, human activity was probably the primary driver for the runoff reduction.

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