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[1]WU Jingjing,TIAN Yongzhong,XU Wenxuan,et al.Scenario Analysis of Land Use Change in the Lower Reaches of Wujiang River Based on CA-Markov Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(04):133-139.

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Scenario Analysis of Land Use Change in the Lower Reaches of Wujiang River Based on CA-Markov Model

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 24 Number of periods: 2017 04 Page number: 133-139 Column: Public date: 2017-08-28

Title:: Scenario Analysis of Land Use Change in the Lower Reaches of Wujiang River Based on CA-Markov Model

Author(s):: WU Jingjing¹, TIAN Yongzhong^1,2, XU Wenxuan¹, XIAO Yue¹, XIE Ying¹, CHENG Yusi¹; 1. Chongqing Key Laboratory of Karst Environment, School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China;
2. Daotian Science and Technology Limited Company, Chongqing 400700, China

Keywords:: LUCC; CA-Markov model; MCE model; scenario analysis; the lower reaches of Wujiang River

CLC:: F301.23

DOI:: -

Abstract:: Based on interpretation data of Landsat images in 1995, 2005 and 2015, we carried out the simulation on spatiotemporal patterns of land use by integrating GIS spatial analysis technique, CA-Markov model and MCE model, and taking the lower reaches of Wujiang River as the study area, such as Fuling district and so on. With the method of scenario analysis, the land use patterns of 2020, 2035 and 2050 in the study area were discussed under such three scenarios as ‘rapid urbanization scenario’, ‘status quo continuation scenario’ and ‘ecological protection scenario’. The results show that: (1) in the rapid urbanization scenario, the construction land has expanded sharply, doubling its area in 35 years to 1 390.46 km², and the main source is cultivated land, accounting for about half of the area of cultivated land transfer; forestland grows slowly, grassland and unused land continue to decline, which will be reduced by 186.58 km² and 69.40 km²,respectively, by the year of 2050, the unused land reduced by half; (2) in the status quo continuation scenario, the growth of construction land is still growing rapidly, construction land will increase by 347.92 km² in 2050, an increase rate is 37.92%; the decrease of cultivated land has damped down, and the increase of forest land is faster than that of rapid urbanization scenario, but the grassland and unused land continue to decrease, which will be reduced by 25.9% and 44.3% during 35 years; (3) in the ecological protection scenario, the ecological land, such as forestland, grassland, unused land and so on, continue to recover and increase, by the year of 2050, the total area of ecological land will account for 64% of the study area; the construction land sprawl is limited, and its total area will be 1 171.42 km² by the year of 2050, and will be reduced by 219.04 km² compared with the same period rapid urbanization scenario; although the reduction of arable land, it gradually tends to balance, and always remains above 6 000 km². Therefore, the ecological protection scenario is an ideal model for the coordinated development of economy, society and environment in the future. The results can provide scientific reference for land planning and regional sustainable development in this area.

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