[1]YIN Shiping,LI Binjiang,PAN Huasheng,et al.Analysis of Driving Influence of Climate Change on the Hydrological Situation in Naoli River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(04):38-45.
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Analysis of Driving Influence of Climate Change on the Hydrological Situation in Naoli River Basin
Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume:
24
Number of periods:
2017 04
Page number:
38-45
Column:
Public date:
2017-08-28
- Title:
- Analysis of Driving Influence of Climate Change on the Hydrological Situation in Naoli River Basin
- Keywords:
- climate change; precipitation; runoff; driver; mutation
- CLC:
- P933
- DOI:
- -
- Abstract:
- In order to achieve the purpose of the water resource use and agricultural development of the Naoli river valley and the whole sanjiang plain, based on the monitoring data from two meteorological and hydrological stations in Baoqing and Caizuizi of Naoli River Bsin from 1961 to 2013 we adopted the statistical correlation and trend calculation, Mann-Kendall method to analyze the variation characteristics of the basin precipitation, temperature and runoff the in middle section, characteristics the change, especially before and after the mutation. The results showed that the temperature was significant warming trend, the precipitation and runoff were slightly down trend, which had not much changed in nearly 53 years. Mutations of the temperature and precipitation of Naoli River valley occurred in 1987. Since 1987, the low temperature and rainy period shifted to high temperature and less rain period. The correlation coefficient was 0.85 between the precipitation and runoff in Baoqing nearly 53 years, correlation coefficient was as high as 0.96 in mutation time. The corresponding in runoff year more and less accuracy was 0.93 in the year with the precipitation anomaly percentage > 10% and < 10%. The correlation coefficient declined slightly in after mutation, showing that almost entirely the size of the middle and upper reaches of Naoli river runoff changes were driven by precipitation. The influence of temperature change accelerated or reduced effect of precipitation on runoff. Precipitation for role of driving force in runoff in Baoqing in the middle and lower reaches of Naoli river was also analyzed, showing that driving effect of precipitation in before time of the mutations on runoff was not significant, but mainly relied on that the underlying surface water storage and water conservancy projects played the important role in driving runoff changes. After mutations, driver effect of precipitation in Baoqing rose in lower reaches.
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