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[1]CAI Lingyan,WANG Liyan,WU Yang,et al.Research on the Sensitivity of Forecasting Ecological Effect of Urban Growth to Input Data[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(01):272-278.

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Research on the Sensitivity of Forecasting Ecological Effect of Urban Growth to Input Data

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 24 Number of periods: 2017 01 Page number: 272-278 Column: Public date: 2017-02-28

Title:: Research on the Sensitivity of Forecasting Ecological Effect of Urban Growth to Input Data

Author(s):: CAI Lingyan^1,2, WANG Liyan^1,2, WU Yang^1,2, LI Feixue^1,2, CHEN Dong^1,2; 1. School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China;
2. Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China

Keywords:: urban growth model; ecological effect; input data; sensitivity; Changzhou City

CLC:: F293.2;F301.2;X171.1

DOI:: -

Abstract:: The urban growth model is widely used in urban expansion prediction in many kinds of ecological protection scenarios. However, different input data will lead to the uncertainty of the model, which will affect the city planning management and ecological protection decision. In this study, Changzhou downtown was taken as the research example, and two kinds of urban layers were selected as the input data of SLEUTH model. Through the contrast experiment, we examined the influence of different urban ranges on the ecological effect prediction. The results show that: (1) two urban input layers lead to different model calibration accuracies; (2) urban expansion prediction results differ from each other, urban expansion quantity and average annual growth rate are diverse; (3) prediction results of ecological effect are sensitive to the urban input layers, two kinds of urban layers contain different land use types and the smallest mapping units; the model developer should select the appropriate model input data according to the specific research objectives and requirements in order to obtain relatively accurate conclusions of the ecological protection.

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