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[1]XU Xiaojuan,LIU Huiyu,LIN Zhenshan,et al.Scenario Analysis of Land Use Change in Jiangsu Coast Based on CA-Markov Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(01):213-218,225.

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Scenario Analysis of Land Use Change in Jiangsu Coast Based on CA-Markov Model

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 24 Number of periods: 2017 01 Page number: 213-218,225 Column: Public date: 2017-02-28

Title:: Scenario Analysis of Land Use Change in Jiangsu Coast Based on CA-Markov Model

Author(s):: XU Xiaojuan^1,2,3, LIU Huiyu^1,2,3, LIN Zhenshan^1,2,3, LIU Jinxue^1,2,3, LI Lihe^1,2,3; 1. College of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China;
2. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Ecological Construction, Nanjing 210023, China;
3. Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China

Keywords:: land use; CA-Markov Model; scenario simulation; Jiangsu coast

CLC:: F301.2

DOI:: -

Abstract:: Taking Jiangsu coast as study area, the dynamics change degree of land use type was analyzed based on the interpretation data from TM image in 2000, 2005 and 2010. Combining transition matrix and CA-Markov model, three scenarios were proposed, which were natural trend scenario, ecological environmental management scenario and urban planning and regional development scenario. The results showed that: (1) from 2000 to 2010, the areas of farmland, grassland and forestland decreased, while areas of construction land, water body and unused land continued to expand; because of the rapid development of urbanization from 2005 to 2010, a large area of land was needed; during this period, the construction land expanded by 1 314.45 km² while the farmland reduced by 1 147.65 km²; (2) compared with ecological environmental management scenario, the area of the ecological land changed a little under natural trend scenario though the construction land increased by 583.68 km², indicating that the natural trend scenario could not only protect ecological environment but also ensure urban and rural development; under ecological environmental management scenario, however, the construction land only expanded by 684.78 km² in a decade, which was the slowest, indicating that under this scenario the ecological environment could be protected at the cost of the urban and rural development; under the urban planning and regional development scenario, the area of construction land expanded by 3 963.35 km² compared with that of 2010; meanwhile, the farmland, forestland and grassland decreased sharply. In conclusion, with too much attention on urban development, farmland will face the substantial reduction, which will threaten the stability of the grain market, and the local ecosystem will be faced with a huge loss. The simulation results can provide reference for the regional land planning, ecological protection and sustainable development.

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