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[1]PAN Bin,HAN Mei,NI Juan.Characteristics and Influence Factors of Runoff Variation in the Lower Reaches of the Yellow River in the Last 50 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(01):122-127.

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Characteristics and Influence Factors of Runoff Variation in the Lower Reaches of the Yellow River in the Last 50 Years

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 24 Number of periods: 2017 01 Page number: 122-127 Column: Public date: 2017-02-28

Title:: Characteristics and Influence Factors of Runoff Variation in the Lower Reaches of the Yellow River in the Last 50 Years

Author(s):: PAN Bin¹, HAN Mei¹, NI Juan²; 1. School of geography and environment, Shandong Normal University, Ji’nan 250014, China;
2. Shandong Urban Construction Vocational College, Ji’nan 250014, China

Keywords:: the lower reaches of Yellow River; precipitation; runoff; human activity

CLC:: P333.3

DOI:: -

Abstract:: In order to provide scientific support for the development of water resources allocation and flood control in the lower reaches of Yellow River, the characteristics and patterns of the precipitation and runoff had been discussed. The results showed that the decrease of precipitation was not significant, and the year of abrupt change was 1964 while the runoff decreased significantly, and the year of abrupt change was 1979. The changes of precipitation and runoff have obvious stage. The precipitation can be divided into two stages as the boundary of 1986, the abundant water period and the low water period. The runoff can be divided into dry-wet-dry three stages as the boundary of 1979, 1985, respectively; the Yellow River is still in the dry season, too. The effects of precipitation and human activities on runoff were quantitatively analyzed by using double cumulative curve method. The results showed that the changes of precipitation and runoff were synchronized with the change of time. The impacts of human activities and precipitation on the runoff are 68% and 32%, respectively, and the human activity is the key factor affecting the runoff in the lower reaches of Yellow River. Finally, the precipitation and runoff change trend of the lower reaches of Yellow River has been analyzed and predicted in the next five years by using the GM (1,1) model. The results show that the precipitation and runoff will slowly increase in the next five years.

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