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[1]LI Xiaoli,AO Tianqi,LI Xiaodong.Analysis of Tendency of Precipitation in the Past 50 Years in Gulin County[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,23(06):140-144.

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Analysis of Tendency of Precipitation in the Past 50 Years in Gulin County

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 23 Number of periods: 2016 06 Page number: 140-144 Column: Public date: 2016-12-28

Title:: Analysis of Tendency of Precipitation in the Past 50 Years in Gulin County

Author(s):: LI Xiaoli¹, AO Tianqi^1,2, LI Xiaodong¹; 1. College of Water Resource & Hydropower, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China;
2. State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China

Keywords:: precipitation; MMK trend test; trend evolution; Gulin County

CLC:: P426.6;TV125

DOI:: -

Abstract:: Based on the data of precipitation from 1960-2009 in Gulin County, the mathematical statistics method and the non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test and the modified non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MMK) trend test were applied to analyze the inter-annual variability and annual variation characteristics. By comparison of the calculation results between the MK and MMK trend tests, we analyzed the effects of the serial autocorrelation on the significant level of the trend. The results showed that the inter-annual precipitation series of Gulin County fluctuated around the average mean and decreased slightly in recent 50 years in general; the distribution of annual precipitation was significantly affected by seasons; the precipitation had an increasing trend in spring and summer, while the downward trend was observed in autumn and winter; none of them was statistically significant at the significant level of 5% considering the serial autocorrelation or not, when precipitation sequences were in trend tests. By using method of the MK trend test, the inter-annual and seasonal precipitation series existed negative serial autocorrelations and led to underestimate the significance of sequence trend at the same significant level.

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