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[1]DANG Jingjing,SUN Bin.Forecast and Evaluation of Coordinated Development of Ecology-Economy-Society System Based on DPSIR Framework in the Loess Hilly Region—Taking Zhidan County as a Case Study[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,23(04):143-148.

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Forecast and Evaluation of Coordinated Development of Ecology-Economy-Society System Based on DPSIR Framework in the Loess Hilly Region—Taking Zhidan County as a Case Study

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 23 Number of periods: 2016 04 Page number: 143-148 Column: Public date: 2016-04-28

Title:: Forecast and Evaluation of Coordinated Development of Ecology-Economy-Society System Based on DPSIR Framework in the Loess Hilly Region—Taking Zhidan County as a Case Study

Author(s):: DANG Jingjing¹, SUN Bin²; 1. School of Economics and Management Xi’an Technological University, Xi’an 710021, China;
2. State Grid Shaanxi Electric Power Company Economic Research Institute, Shaanxi, Xi’an 710065, China

Keywords:: DPSIR; grain for green; ecology-economy-society system; coordinated development forecast; Zhidan County

CLC:: F171.1;F321

DOI:: -

Abstract:: Based on DPSIR conceptual model, we took the demonstration area of soil conservation and ‘grain for green’project as a study site of Zhidan County, used 5 factors:the drive force, pressure, state, influence, response to construct the prediction evaluation index system of harmonious development of EES systems, and calculated the ecological index and economic index, social index during the years from 1997 to 2014 as the sample data of Zhidan County, predicted index changes in three sub system in EES system 2015—2019 years by using the grey system prediction model of single sequence of first-order linear dynamic model GM (1,1), and predicted its development state using the coefficient of variation of coordinated development model. The results showed that in returning farmland to forest (grass) in the process of project implementation, the EES system of the predicted values showed the stable upward trend, the rates of rise of the sort decreased in the order:social index > economic development degree index > coordinated development degree > ecological index > coordination degree. According to the forecast results, Zhidan County should consolidate the existing ecological restoration results, and continue focusing on the social and economic development, speed up the adjustment of economic structure, develop the characteristic industry and private economy, and raise the public investment and management in the science-education-culture-health utilities etc., so as to promote the sustainable coordination development of ecological, economic and social( EES) system during the period from 2015 to 2019.

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