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[1]LU Xianghui,BAI Hua,LV Ya,et al.Analysis on Historical Weather and Prediction of Future Climate Change in Jiangxi Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,22(04):293-297.

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Analysis on Historical Weather and Prediction of Future Climate Change in Jiangxi Province

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 22 Number of periods: 2015 04 Page number: 293-297 Column: Public date: 2015-08-28

Title:: Analysis on Historical Weather and Prediction of Future Climate Change in Jiangxi Province

Author(s):: LU Xianghui¹, BAI Hua¹, LV Ya¹, ZHAO Benjia²; 1. College of Water and Ecology Engineering, Nanchang Institute of Technology, Nanchang 330099, China;
2. College of Geographical Sciences, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou, Fujian 250108, China

Keywords:: meteorology; analyze; prediction; Jiangxi Province

CLC:: P339

DOI:: -

Abstract:: In the background of the global warming, we analyzed the historical meteorological characteristics and predicted future climate change in Jiangxi Province based on the data from 15 meteorological stations and the global climate model (GCM) data provided by the fourth assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Some climatology statistical methods such as linear regression were used in this paper. The results showed that from 1961 to 2012, that upward trend in rainfall was not obvious in Jiangxi Province including the south part, the middle part and the north part, and the rainfall increased gradually from south to north, it was also found out that, from 1961 to 2012, the annual average temperature, highest temperature, lowest temperature warming rate were 0.16, 0.12 and 0.22℃/10 a, the regional warming rate increased progressively from south to north. As predicted, in the future from 2020 to 2079, under the condition of A₂, B₁ emissions scenario, the decrement rates of annual average rainfall in Jiangxi Province will be 18.87% and 10.13%, respectively, compared to the historical reference period. From 2020 to 2079, under the condition of A₂, B₁ emissions scenario, the annual average temperature warming rate for many years in Jiangxi Province will be 0.41 and 0.22℃/10 a, respectively.

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