[1]WANG Jiali,WU Guoping,FAN Qingya,et al.Change and Prediction of the Land Use in Linyi City， Shandong Province, Based on CA-Markov Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,22(01):212-216.
Copy
Change and Prediction of the Land Use in Linyi City， Shandong Province, Based on CA-Markov Model
Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume:
22
Number of periods:
2015 01
Page number:
212-216
Column:
Public date:
2015-02-28
- Title:
- Change and Prediction of the Land Use in Linyi City， Shandong Province, Based on CA-Markov Model
- Keywords:
- CA-Markov model; Linyi City; land use; geo-information TUPU theory; prediction
- CLC:
- F301.24
- DOI:
- -
- Abstract:
- Based on the data of Landsat TM images in 1990,2000 and 2010 of Linyi City, Markov transition probability matrix and geo-information TUPU theory were used to analyze the change of land use pattern in the past 20 years in Linyi City. By the CA-Markov model, the change of landscape pattern of Linyi City in 2020 was predicted. The results could be listed as follows. Firstly, although area of farmland kept decreasing, it still was dominant pattern of landscape in Linyi City. The area of construction land kept increasing, and shift of farmland to construction land was the main change trace. Secondly, farmland-farmland-farmland was the greatest area change of stable type atlas, which occupied largest area and widely spatial distributed. The area of repeated change type atlas was the smallest, which distributed sporadically. Lastly, the results of prediction in 2020 showed that the farmland would be the main source of land shift as before, which would be mainly converted to the construction land. The dominant pattern of landscape would be still farmland, and construction land would become the more important pattern of landscape. The area of woodland, waters, grassland and wasteland might have small changes, which could keep dynamic balance statues relatively. The results can provide the scientific basis for sustainable development of land and the balance between economy and ecology in Linyi City.
- References:
-
[1] 李秀彬.全球环境变化研究的核心领域:土地利用/土地覆盖变化的国际研究动向[J].地理学报,1996,51(6):553-557.
[2] 俞龙生,符以福,喻怀义,等.快速城市化地区景观格局梯度动态及其城乡融合区特征:以广州市番禺区为例[J].应用生态学报,2011,22(1):171-180.
[3] 史培军,宫鹏,李晓兵,等.土地利用/土地覆盖变化研究的方法和实践[M].北京:科学出版社,2000.
[4] 杨国清,刘耀林,吴志峰.基于CA-Markov模型的土地利用格局变化研究[J].武汉大学学报:信息科学版,2007,32(5):414-418.
[5] 张旭.基于CA-MARKOV模型的甘南州土地利用利用预测研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2012.
[6] 李志,刘文兆,郑粉莉.基于CA-Markov模型的黄土塬区黑河流域土地利用变化[J].农业工程学报,2010,26(1):346-352.
[7] 李小英,彭望琭,曹彤.土地利用演化信息图谱的研究:北京市顺义县为例[J].地球信息科学,2002,4(2):55-60.
[8] 范庆亚,吴国平,马庆申,等.基于GIS的临沂市土地利用景观格局梯度分析[J].水土保持研究,2013,20(6):230-234.
[9] 刘忠秀,谢爱良,区域多目标土地适宜性评价研究:以临沂市为例[J].水土保持研究,2008,15(1):176-181.
[10] Courage Kamusoko, Masamu Aniya, Bongo Adi, et al. Rural sustainability under threat in Zimbabwe:Simulation of future land use/cover changes in the Bindura district based on the Markov-cellular automata model[J]. Applied Geography,2008,29(3):1-13.
[11] 韩玲玲,何政伟,唐菊兴,等.基于CA的城市增长与土地增值动态模拟方法探讨[J].地理与地理信息科学,2003,19(2):32-35.
[12] 赵建军,张洪岩,乔志和,等.基于CA-Markov模型的向海湿地土地覆被变化动态模拟研究[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(12):216-222.
[13] 凌成星,鞠洪波,张怀清,等.基于CA-MARKOV模型的北京湿地资源变化预测研究[J],中国农学通报,2012,28(20):262-269.
[14] 叶庆华.黄河三角洲土地利用/土地覆被变化的时空复合分析[D].北京:中国科学院,2001.
[15] 龚文峰,袁力,范文义基于CA-Markov的哈尔滨市土地利用变化及预测[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(4):216-222.
[16] 黎夏,刘小平.基于案例推理的元胞自动机及大区域城市演变模拟[J].地理学报,2007,62(10):1097-1109.
[17] 韩文权,常禹.景观动态的Markov模型研究:以长白山自然保护区为例[J].生态学报,2004,24(9):1958-1965.
[18] Burrough P A. Fractal dimensions of landscapes and other environmental data[J].Nature,1981,294(5838):240-242.
- Similar References:
Memo
-
Last Update:
1900-01-01