[1]XING Rong-rong,MA An-qing,ZHANG Xiao-wei,et al.Dynamic Simulation of Land Use Change in Qingdao City Based on Logistic-CA-Markov Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,21(06):111-114.
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Dynamic Simulation of Land Use Change in Qingdao City Based on Logistic-CA-Markov Model
Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume:
21
Number of periods:
2014 06
Page number:
111-114
Column:
Public date:
2014-12-28
- Title:
- Dynamic Simulation of Land Use Change in Qingdao City Based on Logistic-CA-Markov Model
- CLC:
- F301.2;P901
- DOI:
- -
- Abstract:
- The study of land use change of rapid coastal areas and prediction of future trends can provide a reference for rational utilization and allocation of land resources. Qingdao City was taken as the study area. The land use scenario in 2011 was simulated and forecasted on the basis of land use type interpretation of 2000 and 2011, DEM, population, GDP and range of distance data by means of Logistic-CA-Markov model. Results showed that the simulation accuracy by this model was 94.27%. So the fitting accuracy will be higher by using this model. Then distribution of land use spatial patterns in 2022 and 2033 were forecasted. The simulated result by Logistic-CA-Markov model indicated that each land use type from 2011 to 2022 would keep the similar change trend as that from 2000 to 2011. Farm land, water and unused land area would decrease, while the areas of forest, grassland, rural, urban, mining and residential would increase. The rural, urban, mining and residential areas will increase from 2022 to 2033 slowly compared to that from 2011 to 2022. It is concluded that the proposed model in the paper had high accuracy in terms of simulating complex land use changes and could be used to simulate the multiple land use evolution. And this study provides not only basis of land planning, management and decision, but also realistic significance to protect and improve the ecological environment.
- References:
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1900-01-01