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[1]ZHAO Cha,LI Zhi,LIU Wen-zhao.Downscaling GCMs to Project the Potential Changes of Precipitation in Jinghe Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,21(01):23-28.

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Downscaling GCMs to Project the Potential Changes of Precipitation in Jinghe Basin

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 21 Number of periods: 2014 01 Page number: 23-28 Column: Public date: 2014-02-28

Title:: Downscaling GCMs to Project the Potential Changes of Precipitation in Jinghe Basin

Author(s):: ZHAO Cha¹, LI Zhi¹, LIU Wen-zhao²; 1. College of Natural Resources and Environment, Northwest A & F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China;
2. State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Insistite of Soil and Water Conservation, Northwest A & F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China

Keywords:: Jinghe Watershed; climate change; precipitation; statistical downscaling; scenario analysis

CLC:: P468.0⁺24

DOI:: -

Abstract:: In order to predict the future precipitation change to improve the construction of the future climate change scenario and sustainable development of local agriculture, we built the statistical relationship between large-scale climatic elements and precipitation variables, identified predictor variables used in the model, then tested the model reliability by applying independent observation data, applied previous statistical relation to the output of A2 and B2 emission scenarios of HadCM3, and to predict future precipitation change in the Jinghe Basin at last. Results show that future precipitation of Jinghe Basin will be bound to reduce; however, there was no significant difference compared with base period (1961—1990). There were some seasonal differences. The decreasing trend of summer precipitation was obvious, and the change increased gradually over time. Winter precipitation increased weakly. The precipitation change trend of spring was similar to the trend of autumn, and reductive months were more than increased months. There was spatial difference in precipitation change of watershed. The increase reduced from the southeast to the northwest part of the basin. It was shown that the future precipitation spatial difference would be larger.

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