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[1]ZHAO Peng-yu,XU Xue-xuan,ZHANG Li,et al.Prediction of the Suitable Area of the Grain for Forest and Grass Project in Xinzhou City Based on Grey Theory[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2013,20(02):299-301,308.

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Prediction of the Suitable Area of the Grain for Forest and Grass Project in Xinzhou City Based on Grey Theory

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 20 Number of periods: 2013 02 Page number: 299-301,308 Column: Public date: 2013-04-28

Title:: Prediction of the Suitable Area of the Grain for Forest and Grass Project in Xinzhou City Based on Grey Theory

Author(s):: ZHAO Peng-yu¹, XU Xue-xuan², ZHANG Li³, WU Pan-sheng¹, ZHENG Qing-rong¹, CUI Qiang¹; 1. Department of Geography, Xinzhou Teachers University, Xinzhou, Shanxi 034000, China;
2. Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, YangLing, Shaanxi 712100, China;
3. Statistics Bureau of Xinzhou City, Xinzhou, Shanxi 034000, China

Keywords:: Xinzhou City; grain for forest and grass; grey mode

CLC:: S721

DOI:: -

Abstract:: Grain for forest and grass (GFG) project is the largest ecological engineering in Xinzhou and the percentage of the GFG area is up to as much as 23.08%. How the GFG influenced the relationship between local grain output and demand was analyzed. Basedd on local statistical yearbooks (2000—2010), with the help of grey predicting method GM (1, 1), predicting models about total output, population, unit area output, grain consumption per capita was established. It predicted that the GFG area in Xinzhou from 2012 to 2016 would be 15 450, 14 056, 12 052, 13 856 hm² and 10 429 hm², resectively. It shows that the GFG can be carried on in Xinzhou continually while five predicting data were only the theoretical values of the suitable area of the GFG, which are just a reference for the GFG in Xinzhou City.

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