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[1]Maryamgul·Axim,Tashpolat·Tiyip,Mamat·Sawut,et al.Research on Prediction of Dynamic Change in Vegetation Coverage Based on Markov Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2013,20(01):121-125.

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Research on Prediction of Dynamic Change in Vegetation Coverage Based on Markov Model

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 20 Number of periods: 2013 01 Page number: 121-125 Column: Public date: 2013-02-28

Title:: Research on Prediction of Dynamic Change in Vegetation Coverage Based on Markov Model

Author(s):: Maryamgul·Axim^1,2, Tashpolat·Tiyip^1,2, Mamat·Sawut^1,2, ZHANG Fei^1,2; 1. College of Resources and Environment Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology of Ministry of Education, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China

Keywords:: remote sensing; normalized difference vegetation index; vegetation coverage; Markov prediction model

CLC:: Q948

DOI:: -

Abstract:: Dynamically monitoring the vegetation change is important in the research of economical environment of the arid area oasis. The delta oasis of Weigan and Kuqa rivers was selected as the research area, and the dynamically change of the vegetation coverage was quantitatively analyzed by using the remote sensing image data. At the same time, the prediction of the dynamically change of the vegetation coverage in the next 25 a of the research area was made by using the Markov Model over the past years. The results show that research area presented a fluctuating decrease trend during the recent 21 years . From the year 1989 to 2001, the area of high coverage vegetation reduced from 3.804×10⁵ hm² to 2.711×10⁵ hm², and the very low coverage vegetation increased from 6.410×10⁴ hm² to 6.666×10⁴ hm², low coverage vegetation increased from 1.900×10⁵ hm² to 1.953×10⁵ hm², mid coverage vegetation changed very little. The result of the prediction of the next 25 years showed mid coverage vegetation, the area and the percentage of high coverage vegetation represented the decrease trend, however the mid coverage vegetation, low coverage vegetation and the very low coverage vegetation presented the increase trend. All these results showed that oasis presented degradation of the overall trend. The research results can provide a theoretical support for vegetation restoration and salinization, desertification of the research area.

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