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[1]ZHANG Rong,LIU Xia,ZHANG Guang-can,et al.The Dynamic Analysis on Land Use Pattern in Erzhuang Watershed Based on Markov Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2010,17(02):239-242.

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The Dynamic Analysis on Land Use Pattern in Erzhuang Watershed Based on Markov Model

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 17 Number of periods: 2010 02 Page number: 239-242 Column: Public date: 2010-04-20

Title:: The Dynamic Analysis on Land Use Pattern in Erzhuang Watershed Based on Markov Model

Author(s):: ZHANG Rong^1,2, LIU Xia^1,2, ZHANG Guang-can^1,2, ZHANG Rong-hua^1,2, CHANG Cheng^1,2; 1. Department of Soil and Water Conservation, Forestry College, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an, Shandong 271018, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Agricultural Ecology and Environment, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an, Shandong 271018, China

Keywords:: GIS technique; land use pattern; Markov model

CLC:: F301.24;TP79

DOI:: -

Abstract:: This paper took Erzhuang watershed as the study area, in support of GIS technique and through the interpretation of TM imageries in 2000 and 2005, spatial information database was established and characteristics and changes of land-use pattern was analyzed and future land use pattern was predicted based on Markov model. The results showed that the woodland landscape has always been the dominant position in this area during 2000-2005, farmland and other types of landscape were embedded in the woodland landscape. The next 15 years the overall trend of watershed toward to the right direction, the farmland and unused land for a period of time in the future is still to be reducing, by 2020 the proportion of farmland will be reduced the 1.53 percent compared with that in 2005; woodland, grassland, water and urban village space are still to be increasing, woodland proportion will reach to 61.85% by 2020. According to simulation results, the land use pattern can be adjusted, which may serve as a scientific basis for land planning and management of Erzhuang watershed.

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