PDF Download

[1]LIU Rong,GAO Min-hua,XIE Feng.Simulation and Analysis of Land Use Patterns Based on Logistic Regression Model—A Case Study of Turpan[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2009,16(06):74-78.

Copy

Simulation and Analysis of Land Use Patterns Based on Logistic Regression Model—A Case Study of Turpan

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 16 Number of periods: 2009 06 Page number: 74-78 Column: Public date: 2009-12-20

Title:: Simulation and Analysis of Land Use Patterns Based on Logistic Regression Model—A Case Study of Turpan

Author(s):: LIU Rong^1,2, GAO Min-hua^1,2, XIE Feng^1,2; 1. College of Resources and Environment Science, Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology of Education Ministry, Xinjiang, University, Urumqi 830046, China;
2. College of Resources and Environment Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China

Keywords:: land use; logistic regression models; modeling; Turpan

CLC:: F301.24

DOI:: -

Abstract:: Land use/land cover change (LUCC) is an important content of geographical research on global change today, while spatial simulation on regional land use patterns is one of the key contents of LUCC research. Adopting the current situation picture of the land utilization of Turpan in 2005, turning it into grid form and merging pattern of the land use into: cultivated land, field, forest land, the meadow, land used for cities and towns, area of residential area of countryside, independent industrial and mining land, unutilized area, others. Using the method analyzing, it has chosen 12 kinds of drive factors that has made important contribution to land use/coverage change of this area, set up driving force file with the method ArcView space analyses, analyzed the weight (β value) of each kind of driving force with logistic regression function of SPSS 13.0, set up logistic equation. ROC inspection result shows that fit degree of various kinds of land including: cultivated land is 0.934, field is 0.915, forest land is 0.858, meadow is 0.793, urban area is 0.999, area of residential area of countryside is 0.929, independent industrial and mining area is 0.874, unutilized land is 0.816, other area is 0.762, degree is greater than 0.75, degree is rather good. It is argued that these types of the analysis can provide the valuable information for modeling future land use change seenarios that need to consider local and regional conditions of actual land use.On the other hand, the probability maps of the land use types obtained from this study can also support the local government on making land management decisions.

References:: [1] 刘彦随,陈百明.中国可持续发展问题与土地利用覆盖变化研究[J].地理研究,2002,21(3):324-330.
[2] 张华,张勃.国际土地利用/覆盖变化模型研究综述[J].自然资源学报,2005,20(3):422-431.
[3] 蔡运龙.土地利用/土地覆盖变化研究:寻求新的综合途径[J].地理研究,2001,20(6):645-652.
[4] 李加林.杭州湾南岸滨海平原土地利用覆盖变化研究[D].南京:南京师范大学,2004.
[5] 黄秉维,郑度,赵名茶,等.现代自然地理[M].北京:科学出版社,1999.
[6] 邓祥征,刘纪远,战金艳,等.太仆寺旗土地利用变化时空格局的动态模拟[J].地理研究,2004,23(2):147-157.
[7] 张永民,周成虎,郑纯辉,等.沽源县土地利用格局的多尺度模拟与分析[J].资源科学,2006,28(2):88-96.
[8] Veldkamp A,Fresco L O.Exploring land use scenarios:An alternative approach based on actual land USC[J].Agriculture Systems,1997,55:1-17.
[9] 钱云,郝毓灵.新疆绿洲[M].(2版)乌鲁木齐:新疆人民出版社,2000:267-269.
[10] Pontius R,Gil Jr,Laura C Schneider.Land-cover change model validation by an ROC method for the Ipswich watershed,Massa-chuset,USA[J].Agriculture,Ecosystems and Environment,2001,85:239-248.
[11] 王济川,郭志刚.Logistic回归模型:方法与应用[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2001.

Similar References:

Memo

Last Update: 1900-01-01