PDF Download

[1]LI Fu-cheng,WANG Qing,LI Guo-rong.Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Patterns Using Markov Chain Model in Guansi River Valley[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2009,16(05):31-34,39.

Copy

Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Patterns Using Markov Chain Model in Guansi River Valley

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 16 Number of periods: 2009 05 Page number: 31-34,39 Column: Public date: 2009-10-20

Title:: Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Patterns Using Markov Chain Model in Guansi River Valley

Author(s):: LI Fu-cheng¹, WANG Qing¹, LI Guo-rong¹; 1. College of Resource & Environment, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang, Sichuan 621010, China;
2. Sichuan Academy of Forestry, Chengdu 610081, China

Keywords:: land use and cover change; Markov Chain Model; transition probability; Guansi River valley

CLC:: F301.24

DOI:: -

Abstract:: In the support of the RS and GIS,this article regards remote sensing of Guansi River valley in 1995 and 2005 as an information source to analyze the changes in land-use types of the initial state matrix and transition probability matrix.Based on Markov process model,the land ues/cover pattern changing trends of Guansi River valley in the next 15 years are predicted and simulated.The results showed that: land transportation,urban construction land,and woodland and forest whose proportion of the area will continue to increase.Area of arable land and house sites in rural areas will continue to reduce.Waters and water conservancy facilities and woodland sites changes in the ratio of flat area,and there are a maximum value in the course of woodland changes.Basis on the research results,the optimization of land use structure was recommended.

References:: [1] Sack R D.Geography,geometry and explanation[J].Annals of the Association of American Geographers,1972,62:61-78.
[2] 蔡运龙,陆大道,周一星,等.中国地理科学的国家需求与发展战略[J].地理学报,2004,59(6):811-819.
[3] 龙花楼,刘彦随,唐国平,等.昆山市土地利用变化与新农村建设[J].北京大学学报:自然科学版,2007,43(6):790-796.
[4] Wu L X,Sun B,Zhou S L,et al.A new fusion technique of remote sensing images for land Use/Cover[J].Pedosphere,2004,14(2):187-194.
[5] 李秀彬.全球环境变化研究的核心领域:土地利用/土地覆被变化的国际研究动向[J].地理学报,1996,51(5):523-557.
[6] 朱晓华,蔡运龙.中国土地利用空间分形结构及其机制[J].地理科学,2005,25(6):671-677.
[7] 沙晋明,李小梅,杨武年,等.利用马尔可夫模型预测福州市植被动态变化[J].水土保持通报,2004,24(5):5-9.
[8] 严伟,钱育渝.马尔柯夫预测在房地产市场营销中的应用研究[J].重庆建筑大学学报,2004,26(2):110-115.
[9] 巴剑波,方旭东,徐雄利.马尔可夫链在海军疟疾疫情预测中的应用[J].解放军预防医学杂志,2002,19(2):114-226.
[10] 张汉雄.用马尔可夫链模型预测宁南山区旱情[J].自然灾害学报,1994,3(1):47-54.
[11] Buchholz P.Structure analysis approaches for large Markov chains[J].Applied Numerical Mathematics,1999,31(4):375-404.
[12] 郑文瑞,王新代,纪昆,等.非确定数学方法在水污染状况风险评价中的应用[J].吉林大学学报:地球科学版,2003,33(1):59-62.
[13] 赵小汎,陈文波,代力民.Markov和灰色模型在土地利用预测中的应用[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(2):19-21.
[14] 王佑汉,何毓成,赵宏达,等.利用马尔柯夫模型预测成都平原土地利用格局变化:以成都市龙泉驿区为例[J].安徽农业科学,2007,35(15):4580-4582.
[15] 盛聚,谢式千.概率论与数理统计[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2001:316-324.

Similar References:

Memo

Last Update: 1900-01-01