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[1]WANG Wan-fen,WU Yan,LIU Chang-li,et al.Eutrophication Evaluation and Nutrients Changes Trend Forecast of Wanfu Lake in Anhui Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2009,16(03):79-83.

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Eutrophication Evaluation and Nutrients Changes Trend Forecast of Wanfu Lake in Anhui Province

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 16 Number of periods: 2009 03 Page number: 79-83 Column: Public date: 2009-06-20

Title:: Eutrophication Evaluation and Nutrients Changes Trend Forecast of Wanfu Lake in Anhui Province

Author(s):: WANG Wan-fen¹, WU Yan¹, LIU Chang-li², CHU Jin-yu³; 1. City Construction and Environment Department, West Anhui University, Lu’an, Anhui 237012, China;
2. Chemistry and Life Science Department, West Anhui University, Lu’an, Anhui 237012, China;
3. Environmental Institute, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu 212013, China

Keywords:: gray dynamic model group; nutrients; eutrophication evaluation; Wanfu Lake

CLC:: X524

DOI:: -

Abstract:: Utilizing the monitoring data of Wanfu Lake from 2001 to 2007 in Anhui Province, adopting synthetic evaluation (TLI) method to evaluate eutrophication and based on the grey system theory of constructing three gray dynamic model groups composed of GM(1,1) to forecast the nutrient salt changing tendency of Wanfu Lake, the results indicate that the comprehensive nutrition condition indexes of Wanfu Lake in 2007 is 33.537, which lies in the nutritional level, the eutrophication degree is influenced by water period slightly, and shows that by the means of the grey system theory the density of TN increases dramatically while the density of TP decreases remarkably. The gray dynamic model group method, which uses statistical average of model groups as the final prediction and avoids the instability of only one gray model method, can make full use of recent water quality data to forecast the changing trend. And prediction result is greatly meaningful for protecting the local drinking water and sustainable developing fresh water resource.

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