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[1]QU Si-min,JI Hai-xiang,BAO Wei-min,et al.Uncertainty Analysis of Xinanjiang Hydrological Model Based on Robust Estimation[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2009,16(02):63-67,71.

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Uncertainty Analysis of Xinanjiang Hydrological Model Based on Robust Estimation

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 16 Number of periods: 2009 02 Page number: 63-67,71 Column: Public date: 2009-04-20

Title:: Uncertainty Analysis of Xinanjiang Hydrological Model Based on Robust Estimation

Author(s):: QU Si-min^1,2, JI Hai-xiang³, BAO Wei-min^1,2, SHI Peng^1,2, HAN Hui⁴, LI Qiong-fang^1,2, ZHANG Bo^1,2; 1. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering of Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China;
2. College of Water Resources and Hydrology, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China;
3. Nanjing Automation Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydrology, the Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing, 210012, China;
4. Beijing Daxing Water Resources Bureau, Beijing, 102600, China

Keywords:: uncertainty analysis; robust estimation; Xinanjiang model; Weishui reservoir basin; three-stepwise correction method

CLC:: P333.9

DOI:: -

Abstract:: The uncertainty of hydrological model mainly results from the uncertainty of hydrological and meteorological input data,uncertainty of the structure of the model and uncertainty of model parameters.The robust estimation method is applied to the uncertainty analysis of Xinanjiang hydrological model,with the Wuxigou basin,a control input gauged station of Weishui Reservoir basin,as the research object.The results show that the magnitude of error and the occurring numbers of the station will influence the uncertainty of the model.The error is larger and the occurring numbers of station are more,then the influence to the model uncertainty is bigger.Three-stepwise correction is proposed to calculate the precipitation data first and then the Xinanjiang model is applied to simulate the discharge of the outlet.The results demonstrate that the correction method can prevent the error of precipitation data and reduce the uncertainty of the model,therefore improve the accuracy of flood forecasting.

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