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[1]JIA Chenzhong,QIAO Yangyuan,GUAN Gege,et al.Temporal and Spatial Variations and the Driving Factors of Water Resources Ecological Footprint in Shanxi Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2019,26(02):370-376.

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Temporal and Spatial Variations and the Driving Factors of Water Resources Ecological Footprint in Shanxi Province

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 26 Number of periods: 2019 02 Page number: 370-376 Column: Public date: 2019-04-28

Title:: Temporal and Spatial Variations and the Driving Factors of Water Resources Ecological Footprint in Shanxi Province

Author(s):: JIA Chenzhong, QIAO Yangyuan, GUAN Gege, ZHAO Kaili; School of Geographical Science, Shanxi Normal University, Linfen, Shanxi 041004, China

Keywords:: water resources; ecological footprint; temporal and spatial change; LMDI; Shanxi Province

CLC:: TV213.4

DOI:: -

Abstract:: The water ecological footprint model, ecological capacity model and ecological deficit model were used to analyze the temporal and spatial variations of the sustainable development and utilization of water resources in Shanxi Province from 2005 to 2015. The driving factor of the water ecological footprint model was analyzed by combining with the LMDI model from 2005 to 2015. Finally, the ARIMA was used to predict the water ecological footprint in next five years. The results showed that: (1) the water consumption ecological footprint was always more than the water resources ecological capacity per capita and the utilization of water resources in an ecological deficit state in Shanxi Province; the highest annually mean of ecological deficit was 0.372 hm² in Shuozhou City and the lowest was 0.184 hm² in Changzhi City; (2) except for Taiyuan City, the irrigation water consumption took the great proportion in the total ecological footprint of water consumption of Shanxi Province followed by the industrial water consumption in 2005 and 2015; the proportion of the urban public water consumption had the stable development and the residential living and ecological environment water consumption presented the minor increase; (3) the structure effect was the main factor to promote the development of water ecological footprints, followed by the economic effect, the population effects provide a low contribution to promote the growth of water ecological footprints, the technical effect was a key factor to restrain the growth of water ecological footprint; (4) this study used ARIMA (2, 2, 3) model to forecast the water ecological footprint in Shanxi Province, the results show that the water ecological footprint of Shanxi Province in the next five years will continue to rise in a way of slowing down and begin to decline slowly after 2019.

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