[1]LIU Weilin,XIONG Hanlin,LIU Lina,et al.Estimate of the Climate Change in Ganjiang River Basin Using SDSM Method and CMIP5[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2019,26(02):145-152.
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Estimate of the Climate Change in Ganjiang River Basin Using SDSM Method and CMIP5
Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume:
26
Number of periods:
2019 02
Page number:
145-152
Column:
Public date:
2019-04-28
- Title:
- Estimate of the Climate Change in Ganjiang River Basin Using SDSM Method and CMIP5
- Keywords:
- climate change; SDSM; Ganjiang River Basin; temperature; precipitation
- CLC:
- P467
- DOI:
- -
- Abstract:
- Estimating future climate change of Ganjiang River can provide important guidance for flood control, drought relief, development and utilization of water resources in the basin. Based on the meteorological data in Ganjiang River Basin from 1961 to 2005 and NCEP reanalysis data, SDSM statistical downscaling model has been established. Future precipitation and temperature in the Ganjiang River Basin were predicted by atmospheric circulation factors coming from CMIP5 experiments: RCP2.6 (low emission of greenhouse gases) the RCP8.5 (highest emission of greenhouse gases) and RCP4.5 (median emission of greenhouse gases) forcing pathways under CanESM2. Finally, the characteristics of temporal and spatial patterns of future precipitation and temperature in the basin were analyzed. The results show that: (1) the temperature and precipitation of Ganjiang River Basin will present the rising trend in general in the future; (2) under the three emission scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the maximum temperature in the Ganjiang River Basin will increase by 1.8℃ , 2.1℃ and 2.8℃, respectively，and the minimum air temperature will increase by 1, 1.2 and 1.9℃, respectively, in the future, and the future average temperature will increase by 1.5, 1.6 and 2.3℃, respectively; (3) in the next three periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s) and three emission scenarios, the temperature of the Ganjiang River Basin will rise, and the largest increase will occur in June, the smallest increase will occur in February; (4) in the next three periods and three emission scenarios, the future precipitation in the Ganjiang River Basin will increase, and the precipitation from May to October will present the downward trend, and the precipitation form January to April, November and December will present the increasing trend. The results can provide the scientific basis for the study of the hydrological response of the climate change and the adaptability of the climate change in the Ganjiang River Basin.
- References:
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1900-01-01