[1]LI Xuewen,GAO Chao,YIN Zhouxiang.Precipitation Threshold of Drought Disaster for Maize Above the Bengbu Sluice in the Huaihe River Basin, China[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,25(05):162-169,178.
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Precipitation Threshold of Drought Disaster for Maize Above the Bengbu Sluice in the Huaihe River Basin, China
Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume:
25
Number of periods:
2018 05
Page number:
162-169,178
Column:
Public date:
2018-09-06
- Title:
- Precipitation Threshold of Drought Disaster for Maize Above the Bengbu Sluice in the Huaihe River Basin, China
- Keywords:
- summer maize; precipitation threshold of drought disaster; method of precipitation probability; optimal probability distribution model
- CLC:
- S162.1
- DOI:
- -
- Abstract:
- Based on meteorological data from 66 stations during 1961-2015 above the Bengbu Sluice of Huaihe River Basin(BHR). Using the correlation analysis between summer maize climatic yield and water budget index at different growth stages, the critical period of water in summer maize growth is determined. 28 kinds of distribution functions are used to fit the precipitation sequence during the critical period of water in summer maize growth. By applying Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) and Anderson-Darling (A-D) goodness of fit test, the optimal probability distribution model is established. The precipitation threshold R for each level of drought in summer maize is then quantified based on ‘precipitation probability quantile method’ and the rationality of the index is verified by typical drought years and sites. This paper analyzed the causes of frequent drought during the summer maize period from the perspective of atmospheric circulation. At last, the quantitative relationship between precipitation threshold drought disaster and yield reduction rate of summer maize is obtained. The results are as follows. (1) Stage of tassel appearance-maturity is the critical period of water in summer maize growth in the BHR. (2) There is a significant difference in the optimal probability distribution model in 66 typical sites of the precipitation sequence during the critical period of water in summer maize growth. (3) The precipitation thresholds of drought disaster in 66 sites of summer maize vary greatly from regions to regions. But the spatial distribution of thresholds at all levels is roughly same, which shows the increasing trend from north to south, among which Tongbai in western and Huoshan in southern are the highest. By using the Tyson polygon method, precipitation threshold of drought disaster during the critical period of water in summer maize growth in the BHR are 147 ≤ R < 172 mm in the scenario of mild drought, 118 ≤ R < 147 mm in the scenarion of moderate drought, 89 ≤ R < 118 mm in the scenarion of severe drought, R < 89 mm in the scenarion of extreme drought, respectively.
- References:
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1900-01-01