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[1]LUO Shuangxiao,HE Zhengwei,GAO Qing,et al.Prediction of Land Spatiotemporal Change in Tianfu New Area Based on CA_Markov Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,25(03):157-163.

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Prediction of Land Spatiotemporal Change in Tianfu New Area Based on CA_Markov Model

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 25 Number of periods: 2018 03 Page number: 157-163 Column: Public date: 2018-04-10

Title:: Prediction of Land Spatiotemporal Change in Tianfu New Area Based on CA_Markov Model

Author(s):: LUO Shuangxiao¹, HE Zhengwei^1,2, GAO Qing¹, YU Huan¹; 1. College of Earth Sciences, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610051, China;
2. State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610051, China

Keywords:: remote sensing; LUCC; CA-Markov model; simulation and forecast; Tianfu New Area

CLC:: F301.24

DOI:: -

Abstract:: Based on Landsat TM images of 1988, 1997, 2003, 2009 and Landsat OLI images of 2014 in Tianfu New Area, and combining with land use dynamic indicators, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variation of land use in the region over the past 30 years. The land use pattern of the study area in 2019, 2024 and 2029 was simulated and forecasted with the CA-Markov model. The results showed that from 1988 to 2016, the land change rate of Tianfu New Area was 52.35% and the total area was 826 km², among them, the land area with the largest change area was the urban-rural construction land and arable land, the former increases by 448.43 km², the change contribution rate was 47.52%; the latter reduced the rate of 340.83 km², and the change contribution rate was 36.12%. There was 37.54% of the arable land shifted as the urban-rural construction land, and it was the main source of its area increase. The fastest-change land use types were urban-rural construction land and traffic land. The area expansion indexes were 35.52 and 10.1, respectively, and both of them was in the high-speed change period. From 2016 to 2029, forestland, arable land, garden area would continue to decrease, and most of the reduced area would be conversed into urban and rural construction lands. Urban and rural construction lands would become the largest land type in Tianfu New Area. Its expansion had the direction, the expansion happened from north of Shuangliu County, high-tech zones and Longquanyi District which belong to Chengdu Area of Tianfu New Area to south. The river, river canal, reservoir and other wetlands areas continued to grow weakly, showing the better ecological protection situation.

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