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[1]WU Xiaojun,FANG Xiuqin,REN Liliang,et al.Risk Assessment of Mountain Torrents Disaster Based on Random Forest—A Case Study in Jiangxi Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,25(03):142-149.

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Risk Assessment of Mountain Torrents Disaster Based on Random Forest—A Case Study in Jiangxi Province

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 25 Number of periods: 2018 03 Page number: 142-149 Column: Public date: 2018-04-10

Title:: Risk Assessment of Mountain Torrents Disaster Based on Random Forest—A Case Study in Jiangxi Province

Author(s):: WU Xiaojun¹, FANG Xiuqin¹, REN Liliang², WU Taoying¹, MIAO Yuexian¹; 1. College of Earth Science and Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China;
2. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

Keywords:: mountain torrent disaster; risk assessment; random forest; GIS technology

CLC:: X43;S422

DOI:: -

Abstract:: According to the theory of mountain torrent disaster system, based on the characteristics of mountain torrent disaster in Jiangxi Province, nine factors were selected to determine the impact of mountain torrent disaster from three aspects including trigger factors, the underlying surface of the disaster environment and the relief body. We took the historical data of the mountain torrent disaster as the positive sample set, five groups of random samples as a negative sample set to form the total sample set, and randomized the training samples and test samples, respectively. Through training samples, the estimation models were set up based on the random forest. Accuracy assessment showed an average accuracy of 86.26%, which indicated the satisfying performance of random forest model. Based on the mapping of mountain torrent disaster risk assessment, statistical analyses were carried out according to different administrative areas. The results showed that Jingdezhen and Shangrao were the most vulnerable to mountain flood disaster as they had both relative and absolute larger values in the higher or greater area of the risk degree of the mountain flood disaster.

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