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[1]GONG Qiaoling,GUAN Dongjie.Study on Water Resources Security Evaluation of Chongqing Section of Three Gorges Reservoir Based on BP Neural Network[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(06):292-299.

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Study on Water Resources Security Evaluation of Chongqing Section of Three Gorges Reservoir Based on BP Neural Network

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 24 Number of periods: 2017 06 Page number: 292-299 Column: Public date: 2017-11-24

Title:: Study on Water Resources Security Evaluation of Chongqing Section of Three Gorges Reservoir Based on BP Neural Network

Author(s):: GONG Qiaoling¹, GUAN Dongjie^1,2,3; 1. College of Architecture and Urban Planning, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, China;
2. College of Resources and Environmental Science, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China;
3. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Keywords:: water resources science; water resources security evaluation; BP neural network; random forests; Three Gorges Reservoir area

CLC:: X52

DOI:: -

Abstract:: The safety of water resources in the Three Gorges Reservoir area is largely related to the ecological security of the reservoir area. The evaluation on the security utilization of water resources in the Three Gorges Reservoir area facilitates to find out the areas with serious security problems and in turn illustrate the limiting factors that affect the safe use of water resources aiming at providing a scientific basis for the sustainable development and safe utilization of water resources. The water security data of the Three Gorges Reservoir area in 2000-2014 By were chosen, the BP neural network was employed to construct an evaluation mode of safe utilization of water resources. Then, index prediction in combination with an ARIMA model was performed to analyze the temporal and spatial differences of security utilization of water resources in Chongqing section of the Three Gorges Reservoir area. (1) In general, the security utilization of water resources in 2014 was situated in a range from less secure to safer. Specially, Yuzhong and Dadukou Districts were the less safe areas; Shapingba and Jiangbei Districts were the basically safe areas; other districts were the safe areas. With the respect to the evaluated subsystem, the security for both the society and the supply-demand loop in the main urban area were the lowest level. Their security levels were extremely unsafe and unsafe, respectively. (2) During the period from 2000 to 2014, the security level of water resources utilization was mainly constraint from the ecological security factors and successively from the safety factors of supply-demand loop; during the period from 2015 to 2020, the security level of water resources utilization was mainly restricted by the safety factors of supply-demand loop, and followed by the ecological security factors. During the period from 2000 to 2020, the utilization level of water resources security presented the general uptrend.

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