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[1]GAO Feng,CAI Wanyuan,ZHANG Yuhu,et al.Evaluation on the Applicability of 5 Kinds of CMIP5 Simulated Precipitation Data in China[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(06):122-130,138.

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Evaluation on the Applicability of 5 Kinds of CMIP5 Simulated Precipitation Data in China

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 24 Number of periods: 2017 06 Page number: 122-130,138 Column: Public date: 2017-11-24

Title:: Evaluation on the Applicability of 5 Kinds of CMIP5 Simulated Precipitation Data in China

Author(s):: GAO Feng¹, CAI Wanyuan², ZHANG Yuhu¹, LEI Xiaohui³, XIA Fuqiang⁴; 1. College of Resources, Environment and Tourism, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China;
2. Institute of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System, School of Earth and Space Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;
3. State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resource and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China

Keywords:: climate change; CMIP5 model; drought index; systematic assessment; spatial and temporal characteristics of drought; water resources management

CLC:: P426.6

DOI:: -

Abstract:: Affected by climate change, water shortage is serious and natural disasters occurring frequently. Effective forecasting and assessment on the future state of water resources will provide theoretical and decision-making reference for the rational allocation of water resources. Global climate models are the main means of large-scale simulation and prediction for future precipitation. However, the quality of model data and the suitability of different research area need a systematic assessment. Based on the monitoring precipitation data from 2474 meteorological stations during the period from 1971 to 2000 in China, we performed the systematic assessment on the simulated precipitation data from five CMIP5 models (0.5°×0.5° resolution), and analyzed applicability of the simulated precipitation data of CMIP5 model in China. Comparative analysis was conducted to detect the characteristics of temporal and spatial variation trend of precipitation data of five CMIP5 model and meteorological stations in China from 1971-2000. Empirical correction on monthly precipitation data from CMIP5 models was conducted and systematic assessment of data quality of the corrected data was also performed using the correlation coefficient (r), the average deviation (D_AVE), relative absolute Error (E_RA) and the root mean square error (E_RMS) indicators in aspects of data consistency and the ability to describe the trend for China region. Annual precipitation simulated from five CMIP5 models in China was higher than the monitoring data by more than 20%, however, by empirical correction, the error of monthly precipitation data with monitoring data was greatly reduced. Results of evaluation for five CMIP5 models show that the most suitable model for China is HadGEM2-ES model. Systematic assessment for model data can provide theoretical and technical reference for the rational choice, correction and application of CMIP5 data set.

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