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[1]HOU Kai,LIN Tao,QIAN Hui,et al.Change Characteristics and Trend Prediction of Climate in Wugong Area[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(04):252-258.

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Change Characteristics and Trend Prediction of Climate in Wugong Area

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 24 Number of periods: 2017 04 Page number: 252-258 Column: Public date: 2017-08-28

Title:: Change Characteristics and Trend Prediction of Climate in Wugong Area

Author(s):: HOU Kai^1,2, LIN Tao^1,2, QIAN Hui^1,2, XU Panpan^1,2, YANG Mi^1,2; 1. College of Environmental science and Engineering, Chang’an University College, Xi’an 710054, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecology in Arid Areas, Ministry of Education, Xi’an 710054, China

Keywords:: temperature; precipitation; M-K test; R/S method; Lorenz curve; Gini coefficient

CLC:: P467

DOI:: -

Abstract:: Based on the daily observation data of temperature and precipitation from 1955 to 2012 in Wugong area, the cumulative departure and Mann-Kendall test and Lorenz curve method were applied to analyze the temperature and annual precipitation variation characteristics and years uniformity evaluation, the R/S method was applied to forecast the development trend of climate in this region. The results showed that the temperature had an increasing trend over the past 58 years in Wugong area, and the annual precipitation decreased; the temperature had a rising mutation in 1990, the region was wet in 1955—1984, and it turned to dry season in 1985—2002, and it gradually turned into the wet season after 2002; the uneven of annual precipitation distribution was gradually strengthen, the months of less precipitation had a larger percentage, and the decadal amplitude of the Gini coefficient and Lorenz asymmetry coefficient was little, which was essentially unchanged; the rising tendency of temperature will no longer last, it may reduce in the future, the decreasing tendency of precipitation will also no longer last, it may increase in the future.

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